Biden’s biggest problem going into the election is messaging  

You wouldn’t know it from his campaign’s all-smiles exterior, but President Biden’s web of campaign advisers is deeply irked by an electorate that credits his predecessor, Donald Trump, for many of Biden’s signature victories. In an especially deep cut to Biden’s signature bipartisan infrastructure bill, a majority of voters now say Trump did more to rebuild America than Biden’s historic legislation.  

Ouch. 

Though they won’t say so out loud, it’s clear many of Biden’s senior staffers expected 2024 to be a romping replay of 2020. Instead, they’re facing sagging swing state poll numbers and a Democratic coalition on the verge of losing its left flank over issues ranging from immigration policy to Israel. If Biden can’t turn those voters out in November, he’s toast. 

Pollster and long-time Democratic adviser Mark Penn compounded Biden’s headaches on Sunday in a New York Times op-ed unsubtly titled “Biden is Doing it All Wrong.” Penn’s criticism needles Biden from unfamiliar territory: the moderate center, where Penn argues Biden has alienated his core constituency by failing to spotlight crime and immigration policy. That will come as a surprise to the same Joe Biden who was portrayed as too tough on crime during the 2020 presidential primary. 

Penn’s opinions have irritated Democrats in the past and certainly don’t represent the issues most Democratic voters say are their priorities. But his prominently placed op-ed is another indicator that Democratic strategists are increasingly nervous with Biden’s communications strategy. They paint a picture of a Democratic campaign torn between a solid roster of voter-pleasing wins and an inability to effectively market those successes in a way that connects with voters. 

Setting aside Penn’s suspect advice, I asked Democratic strategists, party activists and long-time political advisers what they thought Biden should be talking about. The answer was more complicated than the current punditry suggests. 

“Joe Biden doesn’t have a messaging problem, he has a messenger problem. It’s like Amazon filling a warehouse without UPS to deliver the packages. Democrats haven’t invested in a messaging machine to counter the corporate media,” said Rick Smith, a Pennsylvania union organizer and host of the labor-focused “Rick Smith Show.” 

“We have no outlets that fight for working-class votes,” Smith says. “For four years, Donald Trump talked about rebuilding infrastructure, reshoring manufacturing, and helping working people. All talk, no action. Now Biden has actually done those things, but it isn’t reaching voters.”  

For Smith, addressing that challenge involves looking beyond partisan binaries. “Democrats need to learn from how UAW President Shawn Fain talks about these issues. Our problems aren’t red hat vs. blue hat or right vs. left, but the top vs. the bottom.” 

Moving beyond tired partisan binaries is a common thread in political experts’ concerns about Biden’s message. Fred Guttenberg, the prominent gun rights activist who is currently on a speaking tour with former Tea Party Republican Rep. Joe Walsh, emphasized the importance of returning to Democrats’ successful messaging on protecting democracy.  

“Biden’s message should be: I will spend every day working to ensure that your right to vote is protected,” Guttenberg said. “For the young people, this is critically important for our future leaders, we do not want you to lose your right to run for office.”  

That will mean learning how to manage a news cycle still dominated by Donald Trump. “On the day that Biden gave a truly important speech focused on antisemitism last week, most of the media was focused on a New York courtroom hearing about Trump. If I were Biden … I would acknowledge the reality of [Trump’s trial] and then transition the conversation to record as president. He can acknowledge that the focus of the media is elsewhere, and use that to redirect their attention back to his record.” 

For millennial strategist Michael Starr Hopkins, Biden’s message should be all about holding together the coalition of African American voters that won him the White House in 2020 and now feel lukewarm about the Democratic Party. 

“African American voters have the power to decide the fate of this election single-handedly. If we fail to energize and mobilize Black voters to turn out in record numbers, we're not just jeopardizing our victory in November, we're putting the entire future of our progressive agenda on the line,” Starr Hopkins says.  

“America cannot afford to continue to take such a loyal and powerful voting bloc for granted,” he continued. “It's time to prove, through bold action and unwavering commitment, that Democrats will always have the back of the Black community, not just on Election Day, but every single day.” 

Biden’s campaign is still searching for the message that will keep the party’s fraying 2022 coalition united. If the party’s nervous insiders are any indication, that search is far from over. 

Max Burns is a veteran Democratic strategist and founder of Third Degree Strategies.