Fed Chair Warns Trump Admin May Be Seriously Exaggerating Jobs Numbers

The Trump administration might be exaggerating their employment figures, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell warned Wednesday.

In a press conference, Powell said that staffers at the Fed think that the government could be overestimating the number of jobs created by 60,000 each month. With published figures stating that the U.S. has added an average of 40,000 jobs each month since April, the true numbers could be closer to a loss of 20,000 jobs a month.

“We think there’s an overstatement in these numbers,” Powell said at the conference, which followed a policy meeting at the central bank.

Much of the issue is how the Department of Labor counts jobs added or subtracted when new businesses are opened or others close shop. The government can’t easily reach out to companies just starting out, or that have gone out of business, so the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses a statistical model to guess. In recent years, BLS numbers have overstated job creation, sometimes by hundreds of thousands of jobs a year, resulting in revisions showing less jobs later.

But the Trump administration has not responded well to bad jobs reports. When payroll processor ADP reported that the economy lost nearly 32,000 jobs in November, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick scrambled to blame Democrats and deflect blame from President Trump’s tariffs. Trump himself fired the BLS chief over the summer because he was mad about the negative jobs data the agency produced. It’s not outside of the realm of possibility that Trump would put pressure on the agency to fudge better numbers.