Jon Rahm is going to dominate the RBC Heritage but history says he won't win
There’s a reason Masters champions don’t often play in the PGA event immediately after they put on the green jacket. It’s an enormous emotional turnaround going from your sport’s Super Bowl to another grind-it-out weekend in a new city.
Just trying to focus on anything except a guaranteed lifetime invitation back to Augusta must feel impossible.
There’s also a very good reason why 2023 Masters champion Jon Rahm is in the field for the RBC Heritage this week in Hilton Head, South Carolina — he just can’t stop winning.
The new No. 1 golfer in the world, Rahm has entered 10 events this season, made cuts in nine of them (he withdrew from The Players after one round), finished the top 10 in seven of those nine cuts and won four events outright — including the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the American Express and the Genesis Invitational.
Now the Spaniard will make his second start at Harbour Town Golf Links after a moderately successful debut in 2019-20. He shot 71-67-66-68 = 272 to finish 12-under par in 33rd place (Webb Simpson won that year with a course record 262 while shooting 22-under par and still only beat Abraham Ancer by one stroke!)
Rahm returns to Hilton Head with the second-best odds (+850) behind Scottie Scheffler (+750) at BetMGM. Reigning Heritage Champion Jordan Spieth has the fourth-best odds at +2000.
It would be foolish to think Rahm doesn’t have a chance this weekend. But winning a tournament that begins just four days after celebrating in Augusta doesn’t typically work out so well for the Masters champion.
In fact, not since Bernhard Langer in 1985 has a golfer won the RBC Heritage immediately after winning the Masters. Just placing in the Top 10 at Harbour Town after nabbing a green jacket was a rare accomplishment itself until recently.
Jon Rahm will be just 12th Masters champ to play RBC Heritage week after.
1985: Langer – Won
1987: Mize – MC
1988: Lyle – T-13
1989: Faldo – T-11
1990: Faldo – T-16
1993: Langer – T-16
1996: Faldo – T-29
1998: O’Meara – T-24
2003: Singh – T-3
2007: ZJ – 6th
2015: Spieth – T-11— Brentley Romine (@BrentleyGC) April 11, 2023
It’s not like the names on that list are just some no-names who got lucky at Augusta, either.
The problem for bettors is that fading Rahm really isn’t an option at this point. You don’t have to drop multiple units on him, but his season numbers really speak for themselves. Worse: Rahm’s odds for a Top 10 (-120) or Top 5 (+180) finish don’t really offer the type of return golf bettors seek out.
So should bettors take Rahm outright or up their units on a Top 10 finish? The latter seems like the safer option. Without more data on Rahm’s play at Harbour Town, it’s easy to be swayed either way.
Just remember: If Rahm is off the lead by two strokes after Saturday, his live odds to win are worth a play.
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