Weekend MMA Gambling Preview: Can Patricio Pitbull win a third title at Bellator 297?

UFC 289 is in the books, but the MMA world isn’t slowing down for a moment as this weekend we’ve got a triple-header, with UFC, Bellator, and PFL all putting on shows. The biggest of the bunch is Bellator 297 with two title fights, one of them with the chance to be a massive historical moment for the sport. In the co-main event, Patricio Pitbull challenges Sergio Pettis for the Bellator bantamweight title — and the chance to become the first ever three-division champion in MMA. On top of that, we’ve got a light heavyweight title fight between Vadim Nemkov and Yoel Romero, and a host of other great fights across all three promotions. So with all that said, let’s jump right into the best bets of the weekend.

As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Straight Bets

Sergio Pettis, +155

Let’s start right at the top: I do not think Patricio Pitbull can make history.

Pitbull is an exceptional fighter, and truth be told, he probably is a natural bantamweight, but there’s one problem: He’s never fought there before. At 35 years old, you usually see fighters start to move up in weight, because the cut is becoming too hard. Instead, Pitbull is now going to cut an additional 10 pounds to compete in an entirely new weight class (a more difficult one at that). It’s a huge gamble. Remember what happened to T.J. Dillashaw when he decided to cut to flyweight? Or how about Jose Aldo, who made a similar move to bantamweight? Aldo (who is a better fighter than Pitbull) struggled in his debut bantamweight bout, because it takes time to adjust. The opponents are faster, fighting with a massive cut is harder, and you’re just not used to everything in general. That’s the concern here.

Much of Pitbull’s career success has come as a result of having a speed advantage while also being very capable defensively. That speed advantage is gone in this fight. Yes, he’ll have power on Pettis, but he won’t be hitting Michael Chandler — he’s going to have to find ways to land on a guy giving angles, moving around, and kicking him a bunch. Pitbull can win, but with so many unknowns, I like Pettis as a value play.

Phil Davis, +155

Another Bellator bet I love is Phil Davis over Corey Anderson. It’s probably fair to say that over the course of his career, I’ve underestimated Anderson, but this seems like a very hard fight for him to win. Anderson’s game is heavily reliant on his ability to score takedowns and dictate the fight; to put it bluntly, that ain’t happening against Davis, who is a much better wrestler. Instead, Anderson is going to be forced into a kickboxing match or Davis will be the one to score takedowns. Davis isn’t a great striker by any stretch, but his absurd length and kicking game probably gives him the edge there, and if he does score takedowns, he’s winning in a walk. I like the value on Davis.

Marvin Vettori, -115

Over in the UFC, I really like Vettori’s chances to beat Jared Cannonier. Vettori is one of the premier pressure fighters in MMA. With a chin you couldn’t crack with a hammer and excellent cardio, Vettori is going to march forward incessantly, putting on volume and looking for takedowns. That’s a recipe for success against Cannonier, who relies heavily on leg kicks and power punches, isn’t the best defensive wrestler, and is getting up there in age. There’s a world where Cannonier has success early, but Vettori isn’t going to quit coming, and that’s how he wins. Think of this like Cannonier’s fight with Sean Strickland, only even more so from Vettori. Love the value here.

Prop Bets

Carlos Hernandez/Denys Bondar Under 2.5 Rounds, +140

With all due respect, I don’t have a very high opinion of Carlos Hernandez as a fighter. Bondar, on the other hand, might not be the best fighter but I think he’s decent. More importantly, Bondar is a finisher. All 16 of his career wins have come by stoppage, 10 in the first round. I think he’s able to score takedowns and find the finish, either with punches, or, more likely, a submission.

Parlay of the Week

Vadim Nemkov, -560

Nemkov takes on Yoel Romero in the main event of Bellator 297, and despite being one of the biggest Romero supporters out there, Nemkov is definitely going to win. Romero is 46 years old, and while that might be akin to 30 for regular mortals, Father Time still demands his due. Realistically, Romero cannot keep up any sort of high pace at this stage, and so instead he spends a lot of fights managing cardio and looking for momentary explosions. It’s a smart strategy for someone who is limited, but it’s still ultimately limited, and if he doesn’t land the big shot, he loses the round. It’s a difficult way to succeed, particularly against a durable, well-rounded fighter like Nemkov.

Vettori/Cannonier Over 1.5 Rounds, -650

Cannonier has only been finished twice in his career and never at middleweight. Vettori has never been finished. Barring a banana peel, this one is definitely going late.

Arman Tsarukyan -3.5 Points, -500

For those who don’t know, Points bets are like a spread bet in any other sport: Taking the total score among all three judges. This bet says Tsarukyan will win by four or more points, aka, he will either win by finish or 30-27 scorecards. Not sure I need to expand on this one. Joaquim Silva is simply not on Tsarukyan’s level. He’s a future champion and should show out like one this weekend.

Larissa Pacheco, -1150

Pacheco just beat Kayla Harrison. You think she’s going to lose to Amber Leibrock? C’mon, man!

Parlay these three bets together for -130 odds.

Longshot of the Week

Marvin Vettori to Win in Round 5, +4000

As mentioned above, this fight is overwhelmingly likely to go long and probably even go to the scorecards. But there’s always the chance that isn’t the case. Vettori isn’t much of a finisher, but he is in a position where he needs to make a statement to get back in title contention, and with 25 minutes of pressure and top control, he’s got a shot to make that happen. As this fight drags on, Cannonier is going to get more and more tired, and as the old adage goes, “Fatigue makes cowards of us all.” A late stoppage is in play here for Vettori, and these are some appetizing odds.

Wrap Up

We took UFC 289 off because, to be frank, I didn’t have a lot of bets I felt great about. That’s not the case this week, as with three different promotions putting on fights, it was easy to find plays for this weekend. Let’s hope it works out.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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