Why America Can't Win in Syria

Daniel R. DePetris

Security, Middle East

A theoretical Syrian political transition is unachievable, and the political opposition needs to come to terms with the reality of the dictator staying in office for the near term.

Vladimir Putin, the man who has dominated Russian politics for the last seventeen years, flew into Syria this week for the first time since he ordered the Russian Air Force over two years ago to drive back Syrian rebel groups encroaching on Bashar al-Assad’s presidential palace. When Russian bombers first began their campaign, Assad’s regime looked to be on the brink of collapse. Now, the Syrian strongman is confidently resting in Damascus—his opponents, many of whom are demoralized and tired of a war now in its seventh year, are increasingly wondering if their goals of overthrowing the regime are lost.

While it may be convenient for many in the United States and Western Europe to label Putin’s military gamble in Syria a unconditional victory for the Russians and an unfettered disaster for Washington and Brussels, the Syria story is still being written. And notwithstanding Putin’s declaration of victory on a Russian airfield and his ceremonial inspection of impressive-looking Russian honor guards, Moscow has now put itself in the position of being on the hook for the Assad regime’s continued success. Indeed, by coming to Assad’s rescue in September 2015 and enabling his government’s territorial gains over the last two years, Russia is now intimately responsible for Syria’s future.

Militarily speaking, there is no question whatsoever that Bashar al-Assad is winning the war. When it has not been overpowered by extremist factions on the ground or co-opted into irrelevance, the moderate Syrian opposition has been left to rot in Eastern Ghouta or pushed into ever-shrinking portions of Syria’s northern Idlib province. A year earlier, most observers of the conflict would have found the notion of the Syrian regime recapturing the eastern city of Deir ez-Zor a fanciful proposition.