Why aren't the Warriors jumping on teams from the first quarter?
For the last few seasons, GSW has been known for their scoring outbursts that substantially improve their plus-minus often being decisive in the game’s outcome. In prior seasons, GSW often jumped on their opponent early. This did not seem to be happening often in 2017-18. To typify these outbursts, I choose to look at quarters where GSW outscored their opponent by 10 or more points.
Slightly beyond the middle of the 2017-18 season (47 games), GSW had 5 first quarters with a quarterly plus-minus of +10 or more, 9 second quarters, 15 third quarters, and 6 fourth quarters, a total of 35 or .744 per game. Only one these quarters came in a loss, not too surprising as GSW was 37-10. (The loss was Nov. 16 against BOS after a first-quarter +10.) GSoMers will not be surprised by GSW having had more big third quarters than any other quarter by a broad margin (43% of all big quarters).
In 2016-17, GSW had 71 such +10+ quarters or .866 per game. Thus, in the first half of 2017-18 season, the instance of big quarters per game was down 12% per game. The proportion of each of the four quarters that made of the total was strikingly different in 2016-17 with more proportionally in first quarter and less in third – 20 first quarters (28% compared to 14% in half+ of 2017-18), 17 second quarters, 25 third quarters (35% to 43%), and 10 fourth quarters.
Thus, overall these big 10+ plus-minus quarters are 12% less frequent, this season than last. Why is unclear. "What do you think?" Jumping on the opponent in the first quarter has happened less than half as frequently this season than last. So, I ask, "What is the story behind the reduction in big, go-ahead first quarters?" Big third quarters are a higher proportion of big quarters in 2017-18 than during the prior season but occurred in essentially the same fraction of games (31% to 30%)
Please give your reasons in comments..