Forecasting the impact of population ageing on tuberculosis incidence
by Chu-Chang Ku, Peter J. Dodd
BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) disease reactivates from distant latent infection or recent (re)infection. Progression risks increase with age. Across the World Health Organisation Western Pacific region, many populations are ageing and have the highest per capita TB incidence rates in older age groups. However, methods for analysing age-specific TB incidence and forecasting epidemic trends while accounting for demographic change remain limited.
MethodsWe applied the Lee-Carter models... Читать дальше...