Trump Tops New Hampshire Poll With 50 Percent Support, Haley Trails With 34, DeSantis Below ‘Undecided’ at 5 Percent
A Boston Globe/Suffolk University/NBC 10 poll of likely New Hampshire voters in that state’s January 23 Republican presidential primary released Wednesday shows President Trump with a commanding lead over nearest rival former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, 50 to 34 percent, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has cratered to 5 percent support–below the number of undecided voters.
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A Boston Globe/Suffolk University/NBC 10 poll of likely New Hampshire voters in that state’s January 23 Republican presidential primary released Wednesday shows President Trump with a commanding lead over nearest rival former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, 50 to 34 percent, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has cratered to 5 percent support–below the number of undecided voters.
Haley has been endorsed by New Hampshire’s Republican Governor Chris Sununu who has campaigned with her around the state in recent weeks. Sununu’s endorsement and the dropping out from the race of never-Trumper former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has apparently not been enough to put Haley ahead of Trump, though some polls have put her closer to Trump with a poll released Tuesday by the American Research Group claiming to show Haley tied with Trump at 40-40.
That poll, conducted before Monday night’s Iowa caucus results were in (January 12-15), included Ohio businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, with 4 percent support, who has since dropped out and endorsed Trump, as well as former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, with one percent support, who also dropped out this week, and DeSantis at 4 percent. The Boston Globe poll, taken after Iowa, just asked about support for Trump, Haley and DeSantis. Trump won Iowa with 51 percent of caucus votes, DeSantis placed second with 21 percent and Haley narrowly came in third at 19 percent.
The Globe/Suffolk/NBC 10 tracking poll was taken of 500 likely voters on January 15 and 16 and has a 4.4 percent margin of error. The poll will be updated each day until the Tuesday’s primary election. The survey sample is sure to trigger MSNBC’s Joy Reid, with 90 percent identifying as White and just over one percent identifying as “non-binary”.
The sample is roughly split between registered Republicans (52 percent) and “Undeclared” or independent (47 percent.) Registered Democrats cannot crossover. If they write-in Nikki Haley on their Democrat ballot it will have no effect on the Republican vote. Joe Biden, who opted out of running in the Democrat primary in traditionally first-in-the nation New Hampshire in favor of South Carolina’s primary on February 3 in a move to shore up support from Black voters, is being treated as a write-in candidate by local Democrats.
The WBTS-TV NBC 10 report on the poll observes that Haley leads Trump among independents as well as moderates and liberals (excerpt):
Among independents, Haley beats trump by a 44% to 38% margin, while Trump leads among Republicans, 61% to 24%. Among those who consider themselves moderates or liberals, Haley leads 56% to 27%, while conservatives chose Trump by a wide 67% to 18% margin.
…The poll also indicates that New Hampshire voters already have their minds mostly made up. About 92% of those surveyed said they are likely to vote in Tuesday’s primary and 87% said they are either “not at all likely” or “not very likely” to change their minds.
When Haley voters were asked if their vote was more a vote for Haley or against Trump, 54% said it was a vote for Haley and 37% a vote against Trump. When the tables were turned, 90% of Trump voters said their vote was for Trump, versus only 5% who said it was more of a vote against Haley.
Excerpt from the Globe poll results:
Are you currently registered as a…?
(N=500) n %
Republican——————————————————–260 52.00
Undeclared (Independent) ———————————–235 47.00
Not yet registered ————————————————– 5 1.004. With which gender do you most closely identify as – male, female, or non-binary (gender variant,
non-conforming, etc.)?
(N=500) n %
Male —————————————————————-280 56.00
Female————————————————————-213 42.60
Non-binary (gender variant, non-conforming) ————– 7 1.406. For statistical purposes only, can you please tell me your ethnic background/ancestry? (READ)
(N=500) n %
White/Caucasian ————————————————453 90.60
Black/African American ——————————————- 3 0.60
American Indian/Alaska Native ——————————— 3 0.60
Asian —————————————————————— 3 0.60
Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander———————– 1 0.20
Hispanic/Latino —————————————————– 4 0.80
2 or more races————————————————— 15 3.00
Other —————————————————————— 6 1.20
Don’t know ——————————————————— 12 2.409. There are 24 candidates listed on your Republican Primary ballot. The three major candidates
include (RANDOMIZE) Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Donald Trump. At this point for whom will
you vote or toward whom do you lean?
(N=500) n %
Ron DeSantis —————————————————– 26 5.20
Nikki Haley——————————————————–169 33.80
Donald Trump—————————————————-252 50.40
Someone else—————————————————– 14 2.80
Undecided ——————————————————— 29 5.80
Refused————————————————————- 10 2.0014. How would you describe your own political viewpoint – very liberal, liberal, moderate,
conservative, very conservative? {ROTATE .1-.5 ASCENDING TO DESCENDING}
(N=500) n %
Very liberal———————————————————– 7 1.40
Liberal————————————————————— 19 3.80
Moderate ———————————————————-178 35.60
Conservative —————————————————–202 40.40
Very conservative ———————————————— 84 16.80
Other —————————————————————— 0 0.00
Don’t know ——————————————————– 10 2.00
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