General Election ‘will be held on July 4’ with Rishi Sunak to hold press conference TONIGHT

By Noa Hoffman, Political Correspondent

RISHI Sunak’s No10 team will have determined that right now the political landscape is as good as it’s going to get for the Tories.

The PM’s advisors will have also been keen to avoid a “summer of chaos” that could sink Conservative election hopes even further.

There’s a sizeable chance no flights to Rwanda will be ready to take off over summer as promised – an embarrassing blow for Mr Sunak.

And the Treasury are likely to have determined there simply isn’t room for major tax cuts in an Autumn Statement, previously intended as a pre-election sweetener.

With the small win of inflation hitting 2.3 per cent, now will be seen as the “least bad” option for calling an election.

That way huge issues including small boats, NHS waiting lists and a weak economy will become the problem of whoever forms the next government.

By Jack Elsom, Chief Political Correspondent

Economy 

Both Tories and Labour will want to stake a claim as the party of economic stability and prosperity.

Previous elections show that voters tend to reward the incumbent government if they feel better off – and punish them if they do not.

Sunak – an unashamed numbers bod – is most comfortable when defending his economic record and has a flurry of recent victories to sell.

Inflation has been sharply reduced to within touching distance of the 2 per cent target, Britain has exited recession, and the IMF has projected strong growth.

He will also point to a recent spate of tax cuts – and almost certainly promise some more if he were to win. 

Labour will aim to trash that record and ask voters whether they really feel better than they did 14 years ago when the Tories first got to power.

Expect Starmer and his shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves to remind the public of Liz Truss’ disastrous mini-Budget. 

But having backed most of the government’s future tax and spend plans, their challenge will be to prove they would do things any differently.

Immigration 

Tackling immigration is shaping up to be the central election dividing line between the Tories and Labour. 

Sunak has staked his political life on getting flights off to Rwanda, while Starmer has vowed to axe them altogether.

Were the PM to get a plane to Kigali before polling day, the pressure would be on Labour to justify scrapping a visible possible deterrent. 

Labour has struggled to explain its policy to curb Channel crossings in a way that cuts through clearly with voters. 

The Tories have dismissed their “Small Boats Command” as a rip-off of an existing anti-gangs taskforce. 

But the numbers are currently not in Sunak’s favour, with illegal migration running at a higher rate than any year on record.

And legal migration is still stubbornly high and miles off Boris Johnson’s 2019 pledge of 250,000. 

Crime 

In recent months both Sunak and Starmer have made big pitches as being tough on law and order.

Realising voters are fed up with crime going unanswered and unsolved, expect them to talk in the strongest terms about cracking down on theft, shoplifting and antisocial behaviour.

Crime has traditionally been comfortable Tory territory and Sunak will likely make pledges about giving police more powers to blitz yobs.

But Starmer has spied an opportunity to park Labour tanks on his lawn and has been hamming up his previous career as a top prosecutor.

War

The world is becoming more dangerous and the public is looking at Sunak and Starmer to keep them safe.

Sunak will point to his recent pledge to ramp up defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2030 – and seize on Starmer’s refusal to match that.

Labour has outlined an “ambition” to hit that target but is yet to spell out a pathway to fund it, accusing ministers of cooking the books.

And expect Tory MPs to dredge up Starmer’s years-long support for Jeremy Corbyn.

Middle East

A knock-on effect of global unrest is the domestic reaction to the war in Gaza, which has the possibility to seriously hurt Labour.

Many of the party’s once-solid Muslim support base are furious with Starmer’s support for Israel, and previous suggestion it had a right to cut the water and electricity supply.

The conflict cost Labour in several councils at this month’s local elections at the expense of pro-Gaza Green and independent candidates. 

As the campaign develops and the Gaza bombardment continues, Starmer will be forced to walk a tightrope over placating his Muslim supporters without being too hard on Israel. 

NHS 

Cutting NHS waiting lists is the single pledge Sunak has openly admitted he is failing to hit.

He has blamed the lack of progress on endless strikes, but now rarely talks about it as an issue compared to the economy and immigration.

Labour on the other hand see it as home turf and will be hammering the government’s handling of the health service. 

Polls consistently put the NHS as one of the public’s top priorities and Starmer will look to weaponise the groaning backlog.

But he will be forced to defend the Welsh Labour administration’s record which is arguably worse than the Tories’.

Stability or change? 

Do voters want to stick with what they know, or is there an appetite for change? 

The question cuts to the heart of the election, with both leaders sensing mileage in the other. 

After being dealt a bad hand, Sunak has insisted he has turned things around and put the country on course for a “brighter future”.

He says Starmer would “take us back to square one.” 

For his part, Starmer insists that “stability is change” and a switching of the guard is desperately needed.

Time will tell which way the voters fall. 

The latest Betfair Exchange odds on which party will win the general election are:

• Labour majority 1/8
• No overall majority 9/1
• Conservative majority 49/1