How attacks on CPC affected Kazakhstan's budget

Tengrinews.kz — Issues with the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) have become a key factor affecting oil production and export volumes in Kazakhstan, according to First Vice Minister of National Economy Azamat Amrin.
Why CPC issues impacted the budget
Azamat Amrin was asked whether the attacks on the CPC had affected budget revenues and if the reduction in production had triggered a chain reaction throughout the economy.

"There were fires as well. Consequently, the geopolitical situation is having an impact. Our production volumes have decreased, and exports have followed suit. We can see that macro indicators, including the tenge exchange rate, are influencing this," Amrin replied.

Economy faces 1.7 trillion tenge shortfall
Kazakhstan's budget has seen a total shortfall of 1.7 trillion tenge. According to Azamat Amrin, this is due to three main factors.
The first is the lag in oil production volumes. The original target was 105 million tons; however, given the "current situation," the forecast has been revised down to 96 million tons.
According to the Vice Minister, this directly led to a shortfall of approximately 200 billion tenge due to lower export customs duties and reduced oil export volumes.

"There is an indirect effect. If production volumes drop, particularly in the western regions, the revenues of associated service companies also decrease. There is also a third effect: when the employees who earn their wages from these activities spend less money in the economy," the First Vice Minister explained.

He emphasized that when all these factors are considered, the drop in production results in 1.7 trillion tenge less flowing into the economy, leading to a corresponding decline in tax revenues.
Oil price forecast revised
The oil price used for budget forecasting has been changed. In the current draft of the national budget, the price is set at $70 per barrel. This is $10 higher than the figure projected a year ago when planning the 2026-2028 budget.
According to Azamat Amrin, the budget calculations took into account forecasts from international financial institutions and the current situation on the global market. This is why the government decided to use this figure. Kazakhstan based its projections on a consensus forecast from 18 organizations. Read more in our report.