Study shows higher Covid mortality in pro-Bolsonaro cities

Cities with a high percentage of voters for former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro recorded higher mortality during the peaks of the Covid pandemic, according to a study published on Monday in a Brazilian journal on public health.

The study focused on the peaks of excess mortality during the pandemic, in August 2020 and April 2021. “Excess mortality” measures the increase in the number of deaths during a certain period compared to a previous average and includes deaths from all causes. For a period in late March 2021, Brazil reported over 3,000 Covid deaths per day.

“Considering the 2018 election results, we observed a strong association between excess deaths at the two peaks of the pandemic,” the authors wrote.

“In general terms, each 1 percent increase in municipal votes for Bolsonaro from 2018 to 2022 corresponded to a rise of 0.48 percent to 0.64 percent in municipal excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic peaks,” they added.

According to the authors, one explanation for the correlation may be linked to the role played by Mr. Bolsonaro, a Covid and vaccine denialist, in influencing his electorate. 

“The disbelief about the harmful effects of the pandemic, the nonacceptance of wearing face masks, the initial resistance to purchase vaccines, and the slow implementation of an immunization campaign could be some of the reasons for this association between Bolsonaro’s votes and excess mortality,” they wrote.

The findings are similar to those seen in the United States. In March 2022, an essay by the Pew Research Center showed that the Covid death rate in the counties won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election was “substantially higher” than in the counties won by Joe Biden.

Both studies also find an inverse correlation between support for the far-right candidate and vaccine uptake.

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