The Texans' big push Stefon Diggs trade shows how valuable the right rookie contract QB is

The Panthers weren't going to trade for Stefon Diggs. They simply made it possible for the Texans.

The Carolina Panthers weren’t going to trade for Stefon Diggs. They just made it possible for him to be a Houston Texan.

The Panthers cast their lot in 2023 when team owner David Tepper reportedly overruled his coaching staff at the top of the draft. After dealing away two first round picks — including this year’s top overall selection — two second round picks and wideout D.J. Moore, Carolina drafted Alabama star Bryce Young over Ohio State standout C.J. Stroud. Stroud went second overall to the Texans and the trajectory of two once-hopeless franchises split.

The Texans, finally taking things seriously by hiring a rising head coaching candidate in DeMeco Ryans and parting ways with football-adjacent clown Jack Easterby, rose to the top of the AFC South and routed the Cleveland Browns in the playoffs to match their win total (11) from the previous three years combined. The Panthers beat Houston in Week 8, comprising half the team’s 2023 victories. No offense in the NFL gained fewer yards.

This directly fed into each team’s offseason. Carolina’s biggest move came early in free agency. Pass rusher Brian Burns, once rumored to have fetched as much as two first round picks in trade offers a year earlier, was shipped to the New York Giants for second- and fifth-round selections. The Texans’ biggest move came Wednesday when they traded for All-Pro wide receiver Stefon Diggs.

The difference between two teams that won 10 games between them just 15 months ago is stark. It’s all thanks to Stroud.

Stroud was a relevation as a rookie. He threw for 4,100 yards in 15 games and was named to the Pro Bowl. But he wasn’t just an uncapped hydrant for a team forced to put out fires like some prolific first-year quarterbacks.

His ability to read defenses and manage risk was phenomenal, resulting in a league-low 1.0 percent interception rate. He took advantage of a strong supporting cast and a rising young defense (buoyed after trading for the third overall pick and selected defensive rookie of the year Will Anderson) and sliced Houston’s rebuilding timeline into pieces.

This isn’t just great in the standings. Stroud is already a top 10 quarterback and it’s not difficult to see him growing into a place in the top five. Those guys get paid; the top four all make an average of $51 million annually or more.

Stroud, on the other hand, will average a little over $9 million each year in the first four seasons of his rookie contract. That salary will balloon when the Texans exercise the fifth-year option baked in to each first round pick’s deal, but it’ll still be significantly under market price. Over the next three years alone that creates more than $125 million in surplus value Houston can spend elsewhere.

That makes it reasonable to take a risk on a 30-year-old wideout with an $18.5 million cap hit next season (and Diggs, as it turns out, could be released or traded without leaving behind any dead cap space in 2025, making this deal a bigger win for Houston). It makes it OK to trade away a top 40 pick to acquire him, because as nice as it may be to have had another contributor on a rookie contract, the Texans don’t need it. They can afford to pay up for veteran help; they have an estimated $40 million to spend next season even before contract restructuring and roster reconfiguring, per Over the Cap.

The Panthers, on the other hand, don’t have this luxury. Young is inexpensive but thus far ineffective. Carolina has many holes to fill but its priority is finding the pieces that can make him better. That meant letting high level defenders like Burns and Frankie Luvu go to focus on additions like Damien Lewis, Robert Hunt and Diontae Johnson. Those are solid players who can improve an offense, but it won’t matter if Young can’t realize his potential.

The Houston Texans are making big moves and have legitimate Super Bowl hopes. The Carolina Panthers are making medium moves in hopes of finding a proof of concept in the Bryce Young era. That’s the value of nailing your rookie contract quarterback. Godspeed to the Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders, Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots, all of whom will step into that breach this April.