NBA Best Bet of the Day: Los Angeles Lakers eliminates and covers versus Rockets

As we enter the NBA’s home stretch of the COVID-elongated 2019-20 season, the daily slates are getting smaller and smaller. The only matchup Saturday is the Los Angeles Lakers trying to close out its Western Conference Semifinals series against the Houston Rockets in Game 5.

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Lakers -6 (-110) eliminates and covers against Rockets

There’s a number of pro-Houston stats that I’m going to layout for you and the fact that the Rockets +6 (-110) have played well in certain areas and are down 3-1 is what makes the Lakers -6 (-110) the winning side.

Houston shooting .400% from three (LA is .336% from three), has .266 FT/FGA rate (LA has a .175 FT/FGA rate), and James Harden and Eric Gordon are shooting with better efficiency than in the regular season. Plus Russell Westbrook has been pretty good — 22.3 points, 8.3 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game in the series — but the Rockets are still down 3-1 straight up and against the spread in this series.

In fact, Houston has lost seven of their previous nine ATS. Furthermore, the Rockets are 16-3 in the regular season and the playoffs when shooting .400% from 3-point land. But, those 16 wins all came in the regular season and those three losses came in these last three games against the Lakers.

If the Rockets aren’t winning the games with these metrics and with their best players putting up respectable numbers, what kind of confidence can a sports bettor have in them?

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The first explanation for why this series has been dominated by LA since its Game 1 loss is that it’s being played at LA’s pace. Houston had the 3rd-highest pace (103.7) during the regular season, LA was ranked 11th in pace (100.9), but the pace of this series is at 94.4 per game.

Another major factor in this series is the rebounding edge, which is something you cannot expect Houston to just magically fix. Houston and LA each collected 41 rebounds in Game 1 and the Rockets won. The Lakers have outrebounded the Rockets in Game 2 by six boards, Game 3 by 13 boards and they doubled Houston up in the Game 4 rebounding margin, 52-26.

Lastly, the Los Angeles Clippers dropping its Game 5 closeout opportunity against the Denver Nuggets on Friday will motivate the Lakers to finish off the Rockets. I feel like it’s part bragging rights, part scouting advantage and part resting advantage as the rationale for LA’s motivation to end the series in Game 5. 

TAKE LAKERS -6 (-110) to cover and end the Rockets season. New to sports betting? A $110 wager on the Lakers -6 (-110) pays a $100 profit if LA beats Houston by seven or more points. 

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