Icis.com

SOUTH KOREA needs to transform its petrochemicals and polymers exports through reduced exposure to China and improved sustainability

LOOD BAGS, syringes, disposable hospital sheets, gowns and medicine packaging. Modern-day medicine, which has greatly extended the quantity and quality of our lives, would be impossible without the plastics industry.

THE STORY IS very similar across many of the petrochemicals, including PVC.

China's Q1 2024 exports reach 619,367 tonnes versus 315,904 tonnes in the first quarter of last year.

THE THREE EVENTS described are historic, meaning that the tremendous volume growth that the petrochemicals business has seen since 1992 could be largely over.
The focus therefore needs to switch to growing value

Relatively minor changes in PP demand growth and operating rate assumptions have big effects on forecasts for China's trade flows.

If population and incomes drove growth, global PE demand could have been just 52m tonne in 2024 versus the ICIS forecast of 126m tonnes. The China market could have been just 10m tonnes versus 43m tonnes; the Developing World ex-China 13m tonnes versus 44m tonnes and the Developed World 29m tonnes versus 38m tonnes.

CHINA'S net LLDPE imports could average 6.5m tonnes a year of just 300,000 tonnes in 2024-2030

CHINA'S annual average PX exports in 2024-2030 could average as much as 7.4m tonnes a year or as little as 700,000 tonnes

RIGOROUS scenario planning is essential for China's net import flows in 2024-2030