Stormy Sunday with heavy rainfall possible, low-end severe threat

Widespread rain and storms are anticipated across the region starting Sunday morning and continuing through the day.

The flow aloft will be out of the southwest, mainly giving storms a southwest-to-northeast movement, but a northwesterly surface flow accompanying a front will slowly push the storm complexes southeastward. This is a recipe for flash flooding, especially with models showing high levels of moisture extending into the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Models are responding to this environment, dumping a swath of 2-5 inches of rainfall somewhere across the state. I feel this heavy rainfall band will be narrow and may be mainly north of Acadiana, closer to the main frontal boundary. However, we'll have to watch the progression of these storms throughout the day.

There is a low risk for severe weather with this system as well. The thermodynamic environment is lackluster, meaning a widespread severe weather event is not anticipated. We will have a bit of wind shear in the atmosphere, however, which could support rotating storms. This is the type of setup where a rogue tornado warning could occur. The atmospheric profile looks much more favorable for large hail across southeastern Texas, where temperatures drop faster with height on the models.

Strong winds aloft could support a low-end damaging wind threat, but in my experience, if moisture levels are high and there's a lack of dry air aloft, it's hard for these damaging winds to work down to the surface.

Bottom line, I am not seeing a widespread severe threat tomorrow and have a feeling this will turn into a messy, heavy rain type of event. A few warnings could be possible throughout the day, most likely tornado warnings, or warnings for hail-producing storms across southwestern Louisiana. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding could be possible, probably somewhere north of I-10. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are likely across all of Acadiana with a higher swath of 3-5 inches possible.