First Warning: Coldest air of the season arrives near mid-January
Several signs are now pointing toward the coldest air of the season arriving just after next weekend.
AUSTIN (KXAN) — As far as winters go, this current one has been reasonably quiet in Central Texas. We've had minimal severe weather, some beneficial rain, only one overnight freeze at Austin's official recording station (Camp Mabry) and no wintry precipitation.
Several signs are now pointing toward the coldest air of the season arriving just after next weekend.
Some social media hype would have you believe that the worst arctic blast you've ever seen is coming our way; not true. That said, we are looking at the potential for a widespread hard freeze in Austin and the coldest highs of the season so far.
What are we forecasting and when?
This far out, nailing down the specifics will be a moving target, but right now this is what we expect:
TIMING: Coldest highs of the year arrive close to the middle of January (around January 15-16).
WHAT: Hard freeze during the nights throughout Central Texas, even in Austin, with widespread lows in the 20s. Daytime highs may not get out of the 40s. These would be the coldest temperatures of the season.
PRECIPITATION: Currently none expected, just cold!
IMPACTS: Prolonged exposure to the cold, especially to our most vulnerable populations at night, will be dangerous. We don't anticipate this would be cold enough to strain the electric grid.
PREVENTION: Remember to protect the Four P's: People, Pets, Pipes and Plants
Extended outlook: Cold
One thing we are sure of...it will be colder than normal as we head closer to the middle of the month. The six to ten day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center has high confidence in cold, but the degree of cold remains somewhat uncertain.
Computer model differences
The European Computer Model (ECMWF) has been signaling the coldest forecast with that cold also arriving earlier. You can see the ensemble temperature outlook suggesting highs in the 40s in Austin as early as Sunday (January 14) and lasting three to four days. Low temperature frequently drop to freezing in Austin.
Meanwhile the American Computer Model (GFS) delays the cold and keeps it brief with highs not in the 40s in Austin until Tuesday January 16. Still, our nights get colder with lows below freezing and into the 20s during this time.
The Canadian Computer Model, which typically handles Arctic blasts well, also signals highs in the 40s arriving in Austin after next weekend and keeps that level of cold around for two to three days. This same model brings our coldest nights with lows in the mid 20s in Austin!
The National Blend of Models (NBM), which takes a lot of different models into account, trends a little later with the cold, but brings highs in the 40s by Tuesday January 16 and lows in the 20s that morning. This model blend keeps the frigid cold limited to just one day.
When will we know more?
As we continue to near the middle of January, we anticipate that the above set of computer model solutions will start to coalesce on both the timing and degree of arctic air heading through the United States.
As that picture becomes clearer, we'll pass that onto you.
In Depth: Coldest time of year in Central Texas
We are now in the middle of our typical coldest time of the year.
From January 2-14 our average high and low in Austin reach their lowest levels of the year. During this period our average high is 62º and our average low is 41º.
By the end of the month our average high rises to 64º and our average low rises to 43º.
Stay with the First Warning Weather Team as we track the arriving cold air and any changes to the specifics and impacts.