Best of the West: UCLA, Arizona and WCC powers await the NCAA’s early-seed reveal
Will UCLA be a No. 1 seed? Will Arizona slide to a No. 4? And what about Gonzaga and SMC? The early reveal of the top-16 seeds will offer a framework.
The NCAA Tournament selection committee will offer an early look at the bracket Saturday morning, revealing the top-16 seeds as they currently stand.
History suggests this in-season exercise has relevance for Selection Sunday on March 12.
Last year, 15 of the 16 teams featured in the early reveal were also top-16 overall seeds (although some changed positions), according to the NCAA. The team that dropped out, Texas, was No. 16 in February.
In the six years of the early-reveal process, the NCAA reports “there have been one (2017), three (2018), five (2019), five (2021) and one (2022) teams to move into a top-four seed after missing the in-season top 16 list.” (The tournament was canceled in 2020.)
We have three questions about the early reveal as it relates to the multi-bid conferences in the West:
— Will UCLA earn a top-four ranking, which equates to a No. 1 seed?
The Bruins are No. 5 in the NET rankings and No. 3 in the closely-watched Pomeroy ratings, and all four of their losses are of the Quadrant I variety (highest level).
Our hunch: UCLA is No. 5 in the committee rankings, or the highest of the No. 2 seeds.
— Where will Arizona land after stumbling at Stanford last weekend?
The Wildcats have lost four conference games against teams that are either on the NCAA bubble (Utah and Oregon) or have no chance to make the at-large field (Stanford and Washington State).
Our hunch: Arizona will be slotted in the No. 9-12 range, which translates to a No. 3 seed.
— Will either of the West Coast Conference powers be included?
Saint Mary’s is No. 6 in the NET rankings while Gonzaga is No. 12, but the committee might not agree with that order. The Gaels are 2-1 in Quad I games, while the Zags are 3-4, the result of having played one of the strongest non-conference schedules in the country.
Our hunch: The Zags get rewarded for a bevy of high-quality wins (Alabama, Kentucky, Xavier and Michigan State) with a ranking that equates to a No. 4 seed. We’re skeptical of the Gaels making the cut.
The seed reveal will be broadcast Saturday on CBS at 9:30 a.m.
To the latest Best of the West rankings …
*** Also considered: Eastern Washington, LMU, New Mexico, UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara, Utah State and Utah Valley
(NET rankings through Wednesday)
1. UCLA (21-4/12-2 Pac-12)
Last week: 1
Results: won at Oregon State 62-47 and Oregon 70-63
Next up: vs. Stanford (Thursday)
NET ranking: 5
Comment: The lone flaw in UCLA’s impressive resume: Only four Quad I victories, which compares poorly to several competitors for No. 1 seeds (Alabama, Purdue and Kansas, to name three).
2. Arizona (22-4/11-4 Pac-12)
Last week: 2
Results: won at Cal 85-62, lost at Stanford 88-79
Next up: vs. Utah (Thursday)
NET ranking: 11
Comment: The Wildcats got good and bad news Wednesday night in other conferences. The good: Tennessee’s upset of Alabama. The bad: Indiana’s loss to Northwestern. (Arizona beat both the Vols and Hoosiers early in the season.)
3. Saint Mary’s (22-5/11-1 WCC)
Last week: 3
Results: lost to LMU 78-74, beat Portland 81-64
Next up: at San Diego (Thursday)
NET ranking: 6
Comment: The Hotline is starting to wonder if LMU’s third-year coach, Stan Johnson, will be a candidate for any of the Pac-12 vacancies this spring. He has beaten Gonzaga and SMC, after all.
4. Gonzaga (21-5/10-2 WCC)
Last week: 4
Results: beat USF 99-81 and BYU 88-81
Next up: at LMU (Thursday)
NET ranking: 12
Comment: It doesn’t take a microscope to spot program slippage, but there’s still time for the Zags to raise their play down the stretch.
5. San Diego State (21-5/12-2 MW)
Last week: 5
Results: beat UNLV 82-71 and Fresno State 45-43
Next up: vs. Colorado State (Tuesday)
NET ranking: 19
Comment: An impressive combination of victories with offense (82 points scored) and defense (43 points allowed) as the Aztecs churn toward the No. 1 seed in the MW tournament.
6. Nevada (20-6/10-3 MW)
Last week: 7
Results: beat Fresno State 77-66
Next up: at Utah State (Saturday)
NET ranking: 32
Comment: The relative paucity of Quad IV wins (four) should help the Wolf Pack’s prospects for the NCAAs. The selection committee doesn’t like seeing a heavy load of creampuffs.
7. USC (17-8/9-5 Pac-12)
Last week: 6
Results: lost at Oregon 78-60 and OSU 61-58
Next up: vs. Cal (Thursday)
NET ranking: 63
Comment: There’s a notable gap between USC’s NET ranking (a reflective metric) and its placement in the Pomeroy ratings (No. 53), which carry a predictive element.
8. Boise State (20-6/10-3 MW)
Last week: 8
Results: beat Wyoming 75-63 and Colorado State 80-78
Next up: vs. UNLV (Sunday)
NET ranking: 23
Comment: Not sure there’s much difference between the No. 2 and 3 seeds in the MW tournament, what with the semifinal pairing. Avoiding the No. 4 seed is more significant because it delays a duel with SDSU until the finals.
9. Utah (17-9/10-5 Pac-12)
Last week: NR
Result: beat Colorado 73-62
Next up: at Arizona (Thursday)
NET ranking: 52
Comment: If we’re being honest, a single Quad I victory (over Arizona) and 10 Quad IV wins probably tips Utah’s resume into the NIT bucket. Put another way: Big wins down the stretch are essential.
10. Oregon (15-11/9-6 Pac-12)
Last week: 9
Results: beat USC 78-60, lost to UCLA 70-63 and Washington 72-71 (OT)
Next up: at Washington State (Saturday)
NET ranking: 49
Comment: Disregard the NET rankings and the Quad results and efficiency metrics for a moment and ask yourself: Do the Ducks look like a tournament team? We aren’t convinced.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline
*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.