Kyle Gibson is coming off a down season. The Orioles’ defense could help him bounce back. | ANALYSIS
When the Orioles signed Gibson in December, executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias said he believed the lanky right-hander was a bounce-back candidate after his disappointing 2022 with Philadelphia. Last season, the Orioles finished top 10 in several defensive metrics, including defensive runs saved and ultimate zone rate, according to...
A good defense is a pitcher’s best friend, and for Kyle Gibson, he’s had few years with a best friend.
Gibson, a 10-year veteran, has largely spent his career in front of poor defenses — a tall task for any pitcher, but especially one with a low 90s mph fastball who relies on soft contact more than swings and misses. Last season, Gibson posted a 5.05 ERA with the Philadelphia Phillies, a team that made it to the World Series despite having one of the worst defenses in the major leagues.
Now the Orioles’ opening day starter, Gibson is looking to have a renaissance at 35 years old behind a defense that could be one of the best in baseball.
When the Orioles signed Gibson in December, executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias said he believed the lanky right-hander was a bounce-back candidate after his disappointing 2022 with Philadelphia. The $10 million dollar contract was the most money Elias has handed out to any free agent since taking over Baltimore’s front office in November 2018.
Last season, the Orioles finished top 10 in several defensive metrics, including defensive runs saved (ninth) and ultimate zone rate (fifth), according to FanGraphs. In a big league career that dates to 2013, Gibson has pitched for a team that finished ninth or better in DRS and fifth or better in UZR just once — in 2021 with the Texas Rangers, who had the sport’s best defense that season. Gibson was an All-Star that year — the best of his career — after posting a 2.29 ERA in the first half.
The good news for Gibson and the rest of the pitching staff is that the Orioles’ defense might be even better this year than it was in 2022, when third baseman Ramón Urías won a Gold Glove Award, shortstop Jorge Mateo was a Fielding Bible honoree and center fielder Cedric Mullins was a Gold Glove finalist.
Baltimore will get full seasons from catcher Adley Rutschman and infielder Gunnar Henderson — two plus defenders who started 84 and 27 games in the field, respectively, last year. The club also brought in second baseman Adam Frazier, who has ranked in the top 10% in Statcast’s outs above average in three of the past four seasons, to replace Rougned Odor, who was in the bottom 10% in the metric. Catcher James McCann is also stepping in as Rutschman’s backup, replacing Robinson Chirinos, who was one of the worst pitch framers in the majors last year.
“I think it gives us a lot of freedom and conviction when you’re making pitches, especially behind in the count,” Gibson said about having confidence in his defense. “If I’m in a count where I’m behind in the count, these guys being able to run around the outfield and really pick it on the infield gives me the confidence to say, ‘Alright, let’s get this ball in the zone here,’ and throw a pitch with conviction that can lead to weak contact and let them do their job.”
After Gibson’s fourth start this spring, he said one reason he hadn’t walked a batter in his first 14 innings was his trust in the the fielders behind him.
“When you have a team that picks it like these guys, you’ve got to give them a chance, right?” said Gibson, who started his final spring exhibition Friday, allowing six runs on 11 hits and one walk in 4 2/3 innings.
“He’s a guy who’s always giving innings, who’s always pitching to contact,” manager Brandon Hyde said. “We love the fact that we can trust our infield defense. We’ve got to be really solid defensively. It helped us out last year, and I see it being a strength of ours this year.”
Gibson spent the first seven years of his career from 2013 to 2019 with the Minnesota Twins, where he developed his reputation as a pitch-to-contact starter. But in that time frame, the Twins were one of the worst defensive teams in baseball, ranking 29th of 30 teams in DRS.
Then, after his All Star-worthy first half in 2021 with the Rangers, Gibson was traded to Philadelphia. He was likely due to regress in the second half anyway, but Gibson posted a 5.09 ERA with the Phillies, who ranked last in DRS in 2021. His struggles continued in 2022, although Gibson’s numbers were solid until he posted a 9.73 ERA in September/October. Gibson didn’t start for the Phillies during their postseason run.
Philadelphia ranked in the bottom seven in several key defensive stats in 2022, including last in FanGraphs’ range metric, 29th in outs above average with minus-37 and 25th in DRS with minus-33.
As a pitcher with a below-average strikeout rate, Gibson said going to a team with a talented defense was a factor in his decision to sign with the Orioles.
“I don’t want this to sound like a negative to the Phillies at all,” Gibson said. “The Phillies were constructed a different way, and nothing against them because obviously I had a lot of fun. But when looking at the teams that were in the mix, it was definitely a thing I looked at.”
Gibson, of course, isn’t the only pitcher who could benefit from an even better Orioles defense. Left-hander Cole Irvin, who the Orioles acquired in a trade from the Oakland Athletics this offseason, is also a strike-thrower who relies on soft contact more than punchouts.
“We’ve got a great defense,” Irvin said. “It’s really fun to be able to throw and just watch the defense play behind you.
“I didn’t really know what to expect. I knew we had talent, I knew how good we were. But seeing it first-hand has really opened my eyes to how much I can trust the defense. Kyle’s right: You can throw to the defense a little bit more.”
Of course, the performance of a defense is far from the only measurement that matters for a pitcher’s success.
Gibson’s career fielding independent pitching — which measures what the pitcher has most control over (walks, strikeouts and home runs allowed) on an ERA-equivalent scale — is only about one-quarter of a run better than his career 4.52 ERA. Gibson has also performed well with a bad defense — recording a 3.84 ERA with a bottom-five Twins defense in 2015 — and struggled despite having a good defense — finishing with a 5.07 ERA with a top-half Twins defense in 2017.
But, for a pitcher like Gibson, having a reliable defense can still make all the difference. It could be what helps him bounce back with the Orioles.
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