Do the Ravens trade down? They will face this draft-altering question with the No. 22 pick.
The Ravens had six picks in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL draft. General manager Eric DeCosta has long said there’ s a natural ebb and flow to pick totals. This at a time when they need all the frugal additions they can find given the $32.4 million nonexclusive franchise tag on quarterback Lamar Jackson, not to mention the $15 million they just handed to wide...
The Ravens had six picks in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL draft. They currently have five for the seven rounds of the 2023 draft.
General manager Eric DeCosta has long said there’s a natural ebb and flow to pick totals. Some years, the Ravens want a big pile because of roster needs or the depth of the talent pool. Others, they’re content to take a smaller swing.
Even so, this is shaping up as an extreme case for a team that has always viewed the draft as its prime avenue for roster building. If the Ravens stand pat and don’t add a pick, this five-player draft class would be their smallest since 1999. This at a time when they need all the frugal additions they can find given the $32.4 million nonexclusive franchise tag on quarterback Lamar Jackson, not to mention the $15 million they just handed to wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr.
Which leads to an obvious question: As the No. 22 overall pick draws near, will DeCosta look to trade down?
He did not dismiss the possibility when asked about it at the team’s predraft news conference: “I think we’ve done that nine times in the last four years. I think the chances for us to be able to do it are pretty decent. Of course, if we’re in love with somebody while we’re on the clock, we’re going to make the pick. We always have to gauge that. How strong do we feel about the prospect who’s available versus a chance to go back and get additional picks?”
If mock drafts are on target, a cluster of players at positions that most interest the Ravens — cornerback and wide receiver — will go off the board in the last third of the first round. Given the depth of talent at cornerback and stark differences of opinion on the pass catchers, the Ravens might be able to move to the end of the first round and pick a player they have graded at No. 22 or higher.
“Trading back is always a possibility with the Ravens,” ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay said. “They get it, man. They understand the importance of taking advantage of teams who are desperate to move up, getting more picks. This is a quantity game over a quality game in terms of draft picks.”
McShay has true first-round grades on only 17 players, so he doesn’t see this as a year to fixate on specific prospects in the last part of the first round: “There’s not a big difference between what you’re getting at 22 and 42, so I’d much rather have another pick or two later in the draft and move back, whether it’s to later in the first [round] or early in the second.”
“They could move down, and the corner I think they could look at is DJ Turner from Michigan,” said McShay’s ESPN colleague, Mel Kiper Jr. “Coached by [Ravens defensive coordinator] Mike Macdonald at Michigan, ran 4.26 [seconds in the 40-yard dash] at the combine, had a great two years for Jim Harbaugh at Michigan. I have him going to the [New York] Giants in the first round, but there’s no guarantee he’s a first-round pick. So if you move down and you’re the Ravens, you could look at him in the late first or the early second round.”
He added that with the additional pick acquired in said deal, the Ravens could target a wide receiver such as Cedric Tillman of Tennessee, Marvin Mims Jr. of Oklahoma, Jonathan Mingo of Ole Miss or A.T. Perry of Wake Forest.
While that might be an ideal scenario for DeCosta, Kiper said, it presumes there will be a trade partner looking to move up for a specific player in a generally unremarkable class.
“It depends who you really like,” the ESPN analyst said. “There’s super-mixed opinion on a lot of these guys.”
Former Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome hated squandering draft value by reaching for players, and DeCosta learned this credo from his mentor. If there are five players with roughly equal grades available at No. 22 overall, history says he will look to move down and squeeze another pick or two out of the deal.
He did it in 2019, his first draft as general manager, moving down from No. 22 to No. 25 overall and adding fourth- and sixth-round picks from the Philadelphia Eagles. That was a year after Newsome, running his last draft, traded down twice from No. 16 overall before picking tight end Hayden Hurst at No. 25 and ultimately trading back into the first round to pick a quarterback named Lamar Jackson.
DeCosta held onto his original first-round picks the past three years, but that’s misleading because he added additional first-round picks in 2021 and 2022 with the trades of tackle Orlando Brown Jr. and Marquise Brown, respectively.
The point is, if the Ravens simply pick at No. 22 on Day 1 of this year’s draft, it would go down as an upset.
Beyond the immediate tactical questions regarding available talent at the end of the first round, the Ravens will have to weigh the overall stability of their roster and the budget uncertainty created by their stalled extension negotiations with Jackson.
With a team built to win in 2023, they don’t need more than one or two Week 1 starters from this draft. But they do need to add potential future starters on the offensive and defensive lines and at wide receiver. Key players from the 2020 draft class, such as running J.K. Dobbins and defensive tackles Justin Madubuike and Broderick Washington, are entering the last year of their rookie deals, and the Ravens would like to have cheap reinforcements on hand.
That would be especially pertinent if they’re staring at the possibility of using the franchise tag to keep Jackson off the free agent market again next March. Even a nonexclusive tag for Jackson would take more than $40 million out of their 2024 cap, limiting their ability to retain other players.
Their financial picture could change in a hurry if they trade Jackson or finally sign him to a long-term deal, but for now, they have to plan around the franchise tag, and that might mean building a few position groups on the cheap.
DeCosta does not sound overly concerned with adding a mass infusion of rookies to his 2023 team.
“Our goal would be to add picks, if we can, at some point,” he said. “In saying that, I think it’s important to note that we’ve had a lot of picks over the last four or five years. You get to a point where maybe having too many picks isn’t necessarily the right thing in any given year. You almost have to purge at some point because you have all these young players on the team, and they can’t all make the team if you just keep stacking these huge, massive draft classes.”
He noted, for example, that the Ravens don’t have a second-round pick because they used it to trade for Pro Bowl linebacker Roquan Smith, who projects to be one of the team’s most important players over the next five years. It was a win-now move that DeCosta said he’d make again without hesitation.
NFL draft
Round 1: Next Thursday, 8 p.m.
Rounds 2-3: Friday, April 28, 7 p.m.
Rounds 4-7: Saturday, April 29, noon
TV: ESPN, NFL Network, Chs. 2, 7
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