49ers’ 2023 draft: Analyzing the hits and misses in Shanahan-Lynch regime

Whatever mistakes the 49ers have made on early draft selections under Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch has been more than made up for with later picks such as George Kittle and Fred Warner.

SANTA CLARA — Whatever mistakes coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch have made in the NFL Draft, they’ve been either good enough or fortunate enough to make up for them in later rounds.

Or even later drafts.

That was evident in their first draft in 2017, when they made swung a deal with the Chicago Bears, wound up with two picks among the first 31 and didn’t get anywhere near what they hoped for from either defensive tackle Solomon Thomas or linebacker Reuben Foster.

Much later in that draft, they were able to get a franchise cornerstone in the fifth round with the selection of Iowa tight end George Kittle.

Or take the bold decision to trade three first-round draft picks for Trey Lance, a quarterback who faced questionable competition and hadn’t started a lot of games at North Dakota State.

If Lance never ascends to being the 49ers’ starting quarterback, the move was mitigated with the final pick in last year’s draft and the selection of Brock Purdy at No. 262.

A look at some of the hits and misses of the 49ers draft picks from 2017 through the present, with the 2023 Draft beginning Thursday night:

(Note: First-round draft picks are expected to be contributors — hence no 49ers first-round picks such as Nick Bosa will be included as ‘greatest hits’. First round picks that haven’t panned out, however, are included in the swing-and-miss category).

Greatest hits

1. TE George Kittle, fifth round, Iowa, No 146 overall, 2017: Kittle helped make up for some serious errors in judgment that will be explained later. He has 394 receptions for 5,254 yards and 31 touchdowns, and that’s only part of his contribution. His physicality and personality permeate the entire team structure.

2. LB Fred Warner, third round, BYU, No. 70 overall, 2018: Warner said it himself. He was a positionless player with raw athletic ability waiting to be molded into something special. The 49ers molded him into one of the NFL’s elite linebackers.

3. QB Brock Purdy, seventh round, No. 262 overall, 2022: It was only one year, but an unprecedented one. Even if Purdy never matches what he did as an emergency starter in place of Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo, he’ll still rank as one of the franchise’s great draft-day steals.

4. WR Deebo Samuel, second round, South Carolina, No. 36 overall, 2019: It was hard to know what to make of Samuel in that he was squat and barrel-chested — hardly the wide receiver prototype. But the 49ers knew what they were doing, and Shanahan devised a system to suit Samuel and make him a star.

5. LB Dre Greenlaw, fifth round, Arkansas, No. 148 overall, 2019: The smallish linebacker showed immediately he could be the kind of sideline-to-sideline presence for a modern NFL defense. A bit overexuberant at times, but the 49ers were wise to lock him up with an extension.

6. S Talanoa Hufanga, sixth round, USC, No. 191 overall, 2021: Coming off a Pro Bowl and All-Pro season in his second year, Hufanga plays with a spirituality instilled by his mentor Troy Polamalu. Not as physically gifted as Polamalu, it will be interesting to see how much better he can get.

7. RB Elijah Mitchell, sixth round, Louisiana, No. 194 overall, 2021: Set a rookie rushing record with 963 yards showing the ability to tack an extra two or three yards on carries seemingly headed nowhere. The question is whether Mitchell’s body can hold up with his demolition derby style of running.

8. DT D.J Jones, sixth round, No. 198 overall, 2017: His stats didn’t always measure up to his contribution, but Jones was an interior presence whose value became apparent in free agency last offseason. Denver signed him to a three-year contract worth a max of $30 million with nearly $9 million guaranteed.

9. WR Jauan Jennings, seventh round, Tennessee, No. 217 overall: Jennings has 94 receptions for 698 yards in two years, but they don’t call him “Third and Jauan” for nothing. Forty-seven of his receptions, 403 yards and 29 first downs have come on third-down plays.

10. T-G Colton McKivitz, fifth round, West Virginia, No. 153 overall: McKivitz has been a capable starter when called upon and a valuable plug-and-play reserve when players are injured. He’s expected to move in as the starting right tackle with McGlinchey departing in free agency.

Swing and miss

1. QB Trey Lance, first round, North Dakota State, No. 3 overall, 2021: Lance is young enough to prove this wrong, but as it stands, the 49ers gave up three first-round picks to take their quarterback of the future. Right now, it looks like that mantle belongs to Purdy, not Lance, if healthy. They re-signed Garoppolo because Lance wasn’t ready and signed Sam Darnold just in case he still isn’t ready. Lance hasn’t stayed healthy.

2. DT Solomon Thomas, first round, Stanford, No. 3 overall, 2017: This is a classic case of over-drafting based on character. Thomas has 30 starts in 82 games with 10 sacks — worth a roster spot, not the No. 3 pick. Players available at the time included Christian McCaffrey (No. 6), Patrick Mahomes (No. 10), Haason Reddick (No. 13).

3. LB Reuben Foster, first round, Alabama, No. 31 overall, 2017: The polar opposite of Thomas. Foster is an explosive athlete but had a suspension for violating the code of conduct and substance abuse policies. Domestic violence arrests led to his release in 2018.

4. Dante Pettis, second round, Washington, No. 44 overall, 2018: Selected to be a deep threat and return specialist with touchdown potential, Pettis’ route-running and blocking were weak points of his game. And problems in those two areas will never put you on the good side of Shanahan. Pettis lasted two seasons.

5. DT Javon Kinlaw, first round, South Carolina, No. 13 overall, 2020: Kinlaw was supposed to help as a pillar of strength inside after the trade of DeForest Buckner but has yet to be healthy enough to do so through two seasons. He hasn’t done enough to receive a fifth-year option.

6. WR Jalen Hurd, third round, Baylor, No. 67 overall, 2019: Thrived in wide-open Baylor offense and had skills running from scrimmage as well as receiving. Spent his time with the 49ers on injured reserve with a back injury and an ACL tear.

7. RB Trey Sermon, third round, Ohio State, No. 88 overall, 2021: The Oklahoma transfer starred at Ohio State, but the 49ers quickly determined they had a better player in Mitchell, who was drafted three rounds later. Sermon was waived and signed with Philadelphia, where he made no impact.

8. RB Joe Williams, fourth round, Utah, No. 121 overall, 2017: Led the 49ers in preseason rushing as a rookie but was placed on injured reserve with a minor foot injury. Coaches questioned his level of dedication and he never played in the NFL.

9. QB C.J. Beathard, third round, Iowa, No. 104 overall, 2017: Shanahan thought highly of Beathard, but the skill he demonstrated most often with some poor teams was that he could take a serious beating. He eventually fell behind undrafted Nick Mullens.

10. Akhello Witherspoon, third round, Colorado, No. 66 overall, 2017: He was making progress but fell out of favor in 2018 due to injuries and difficulties in coverage when Richard Sherman was signed as the other starting corner. Witherspoon has played 13 games with seven starts with Pittsburgh over the last two seasons.