Pac-12 bowl projections: Oregon to the playoff, UW to the Fiesta and Arizona jumps into the Holiday
The Huskies are in first place, but the Ducks are our pick to win the conference and end the six-year CFP drought.
Helpful reminders on the postseason selection process before we plunge into the latest Pac-12 bowl forecast:
— The Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl will host the College Football Playoff semifinals, leaving the Pac-12 champion to participate in the Fiesta, Peach or Cotton bowls unless it qualifies for the CFP.
— The Pac-12 is contractually tied to seven games this season: the New Year’s Six, Alamo, Las Vegas, Holiday, Sun, LA and Independence bowls. If there are more eligible teams than available spots, the conference will attempt to secure invitations to other bowls with vacancies.
College Football Playoff/Sugar Bowl
Team: Oregon (7-1)
Home games (three): Cal, USC, Oregon State
Road games (one): Arizona State
Comment: With their toughest games at home and all units functioning efficiently, the Ducks are our pick to win the conference. As a one-loss champion of the toughest league in the land, they should have a resume worthy of playoff inclusion.
New Year’s Six/Fiesta Bowl
Team: Washington (8-0)
Home games remaining (two): Utah, WSU
Road games remaining (two): USC, Oregon State
Comment: We expect the Huskies to ramp up their play after two substandard performances. But can they navigate November with no more than one loss? Is their defense stout enough to handle Oregon on a neutral field in Las Vegas? A New Year’s Six bid is more likely than not but not quite guaranteed, even with the 8-0 start.
Alamo Bowl
Team: Utah (6-2)
Home games (two): Arizona State, Colorado
Road games (two): Washington, Arizona
Comment: The key game for Utah? It just might be the Nov. 18 trip to Tucson, which now looks far more challenging than it once did. The path into the New Year’s Six remains traversable, barely.
Las Vegas Bowl
Team: USC (7-2)
Home games (two): Washington, UCLA
Road games (one): Oregon
Comment: Remember the Pac-12’s selection process: The Alamo, Las Vegas and Holiday Bowls have a choice of teams as long as there is no more than a one-game difference in conference record. As a result, the Trojans could land in a better bowl that their performance suggests.
Holiday Bowl
Team: Arizona (5-3)
Home games (two): UCLA, Utah
Road games (two): Colorado, Arizona State
Comment: The surging Wildcats would be a coveted participant for the Holiday Bowl given the likelihood of ticket sales and hotel bookings. They need the resume to support an invitation, however, and that hinges on winning at least two of the last four.
Sun Bowl
Team: Oregon State (6-2)
Home games (two): Stanford, Washington
Road games (two): Colorado, Oregon
Comment: We project two more victories for the Beavers, but the head-to-head loss to Arizona could factor into the bowl assignments if the Beavers and Wildcats are closely bunched in the conference standings.
LA Bowl
Team: UCLA (6-2)
Home games (two): Arizona State, Cal
Road games (two): Arizona, USC
Comment: No team has greater downside risk than the Bruins: Backing out of the Holiday at the last second in 2021 (due to positive COVID tests) likely means bowl executives only would extend an invitation if they have no choice. And UCLA was in the Sun last year.
At-large bowl
Team: Washington State (4-4)
Home games (two): Stanford, Colorado
Road games (two): Cal, Washington
Comment: The September Cougars would win three of their last four, but the October Cougars would lose three of their last four. We’ll split the difference for November and project two more wins and another bowl berth. Only this time, it won’t be a game affiliated with the Pac-12.
Non-qualifier
Team: Colorado (4-4)
Home games (two): Oregon State, Arizona
Road games (two): WSU, Utah
Comment: At this point, the Buffaloes are more likely to lose all of their remaining games than to win two of the four (and clinch a bowl berth). They can’t protect their quarterback or stop their opponents.
Non-qualifier
Team: Cal (3-5)
Home games (one): WSU
Road games (three): Oregon, Stanford, UCLA
Comment: We cannot envision Cal making a coach change — nor do we believe it’s appropriate — but next year will be the year for the Justin Wilcox era.
Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford (2-6)
Home games (two): Cal, Notre Dame
Road games (two): WSU, Oregon State
Comment: November in the Pac-12 is all about laying the foundation for September in the ACC.
Ineligible
Team: Arizona State (2-6)
Home games (two): Oregon, Arizona
Road games (two): Utah, UCLA
Comment: Change the outcome of a handful of plays in the three-point losses to Colorado and Cal and the near-upset at Washington, and the Sun Devils would be on the high side of .500.
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