Pac-12 power ratings: Arizona rises as the top tier forms and tiebreaker scenarios gather at the gates

Arizona's ascent leaves four teams hovering behind Washington and Oregon with three weeks remaining.

With three weeks left, six teams are in the race for a berth in the Pac-12 championship game.

Washington stands alone with an undefeated record in league play (6-0), followed closely by Oregon (5-1). Four teams have 4-2 marks: Utah, Oregon State, USC and Arizona.

If the Huskies win at least two of their final three, they clinch a berth in Las Vegas. And if the Ducks keep winning, they qualify, as well.

But the conference is one or two unexpected results away from tiebreaker mayhem. Only four of the six teams play each of the others, and the two schedule misses, USC-Oregon State and Arizona-Oregon, could further complicate matters.

Which makes this a fine time to remind fans of the tiebreaker process itself.

Two-team tie

Head-to-head trumps all. If the tied teams did not play each other, the following process is applied, according to the conference:

— Win percentage against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings.

When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams. 

— Win percentage against all common conference opponents.

— Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (i.e., strength of conference schedule). 

— Total number of wins in a 12-game season.

Three-team (or more) tie

Head-to-head is the first step, as long as all of the tied teams have played each other. But if two teams within the tied group have not played each other, then the following process is applied, per the conference:

— Win percentage against all common conference opponents (must be common among all teams involved in the tie). 

— Record against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings.

When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams. 

— Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (i.e., strength of conference schedule).

Given Washington’s cushion in the standings and Oregon’s dominance in recent weeks, the most likely outcome for the championship game pairing is a rematch of UW’s 36-33 victory.

But it won’t take much for clarity to vanish and chaos to appear in the final weeks of the final season.

To the power ratings …

(All times Pacific)

1. Oregon (8-1/5-1)

Last week: 1
Result: beat Cal 63-19
Next up: vs. USC (7:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: Only three teams rank in the top 15 nationally in most yards-per-play gained and fewest yards-per-play allowed, the best measures of efficiency and dominance. One is the two-time defending national champion. One is immersed in a sign-stealing scandal that seemingly produced a competitive advantage. The other is Oregon.

2. Washington (9-0/6-0)

Last week: 2
Result: won at USC 52-42
Next up: vs. Utah (12:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: UW coach Kalen DeBoer and play-caller Ryan Grubb offered a master class in tactics Saturday, leaning heavily into a running game that had been mostly absent from their strategy for eight weeks. That zag, when the Trojans expected a zig, created a career game for tailback Dillon Johnson and preserved the undefeated season.

3. Oregon State (7-2/4-2)

Last week: 3
Result: won at Colorado 26-19
Next up: vs. Stanford (2:30 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks)
Comment: Take care of business this week and the Beavers will get their long-sought wish: Season-ending showdowns against Washington (home) and Oregon (road) with a berth in the championship game potentially at stake.

4. Arizona (6-3/4-2)

Last week: 7
Result: beat UCLA 27-10
Next up: at Colorado (11 a.m. on Pac-12 Networks)
Comment: Arizona’s national ranking in points allowed per game the previous five seasons (excluding 2020), chronologically: 109th, 98th, 118th, 100th and 126th. Arizona’s national ranking in points allowed per game this season: 28th.

5. Utah (7-2/4-2)

Last week: 5
Result: beat Arizona State 55-3
Next up: at Washington (12:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: Be wary of drawing any conclusions from Utah’s previous two games (the blowout loss to Oregon or the wipeout of ASU) when assessing the Utes’ chances this week. The most applicable result is probably the narrow, late-October win at USC, which is comparable to the Huskies in possessing a high-octane offense and vulnerable defense. In other words, expect a down-to-the-wire affair in Seattle.

6. UCLA (6-3/3-3)

Last week: 4
Result: lost at Arizona 27-10
Next up: vs. Arizona State (6 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks)
Comment: Seasons change, but the Bruins’ location within the conference hierarchy does not: They remain anchored to the Pac-12’s middle tier. It’s hard to envision that relative position changing in the Big Ten and easier to see it getting worse.

7. USC (7-3/5-2)

Last week: 6
Result: lost to Washington 52-42
Next up: at Oregon (7:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: We find it curious that Lincoln Riley dismissed defensive coordinator Alex Grinch this week, after Washington scored 52 points and gained 572 yards, rather than last week, after Cal scored 49 points and gained 527 yards. Because USC’s performance against Cal was much worse given the quality of competition.

8. Colorado (4-5/1-5)

Last week: 8
Result: lost to Oregon State 26-19
Next up: vs. Arizona (11 a.m. on Pac-12 Networks)
Comment: The possession at the end of the first half was an obvious abomination and, frankly, we disagreed (in real time) with the decision to kick away with 1:42 left in the game, trailing by a touchdown. What made the CU coaching staff think the defense could stop Oregon State from getting the first down that would seal the win? (The Beavers had scored on four consecutive possessions.) An onside kick was clearly the right move at that point.

9. Cal (3-6/1-5)

Last week: 9
Result: lost at Oregon 63-19
Next up: vs. Washington State (1 p.m. on ESPN2)
Comment: By our count, the Bears have lost eight consecutive games against ranked opponents. (Their last win: over Oregon at the end of the COVID season.) You would think that just once, enough bounces would go their way to produce a breakthrough victory. But … nope. The slog continues.

10. Stanford (3-6/2-5)

Last week: 12
Result: won at WSU 10-7
Next up: at Oregon State (2:30 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks)
Comment: Difficult to see a victory this week or against Notre Dame. But Stanford could very well handle Cal on Nov. 18 to give Troy Taylor a four-win first season. And that, folks, would be mighty impressive.

11. Arizona State (2-7/1-5)

Last week: 10
Result: lost at Utah 55-3
Next up: at UCLA (6 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks)
Comment: Kenny Dillingham’s one-year contract extension, designed to offset the postseason ban, was the least the school could do. Given the circumstances in Tempe, we cannot pinpoint anything more the rookie coach could have done except, of course, fielding a team of completely indestructible players.

12. Washington State (4-5/1-5)

Last week: 11
Result: lost to Stanford 10-7
Next up: at Cal (1 p.m. on ESPN2)
Comment: Cougars were an easy call for the cellar after back-to-back losses to the teams that had previously occupied the cellar. No school in the Power Five has fallen harder, faster.

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