Pac-12 picks ATS: Utah faces a must-win game at Washington with its three-peat chances at stake
The Utes must win in Seattle to maintain a path into the Pac-12 championship game.
Almost two years to the day that Utah took control of the Pac-12, the two-time defending champs make their last stand.
If the Utes lose Saturday in Seattle, the odds of a three-peat would grow longer than their injury list.
A riveting run of success that effectively began with a demolition of Oregon in Nov. 2021 would come to an end.
The Utes are 4-2 in conference play, two games behind Washington. A head-to-head loss this weekend would create a three-game gap with two remaining and mathematically eliminate Utah from the No. 1 seed in the Pac-12 championship game.
The likelihood of claiming the No. 2 seed would depend largely on the outcome of the Oregon-USC game.
The combination of a Utes loss and Ducks (5-1) victory would push Utah two games behind Oregon with two remaining, plus a head-to-head loss.
What’s more, the Utes would be a game back of Oregon State, which also has the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage.
At that point, they would need to beat Arizona and Colorado and hope for an unlikely series of outcomes elsewhere that creates a three- or four-team deadlock for the No. 2 seed, then have the tiebreaker fall just right.
Even if Oregon loses to USC — the Ducks are favored by more than two touchdowns — the road to Las Vegas would be extremely narrow.
Granted, the Utes were on the right side of an improbable tiebreaker scenario last year, snuck into the title game and blasted USC for their second consecutive trophy.
So recent history suggests it could happen.
Then again, what are the odds of it happening twice?
In our view, this is it. If the Utes lose in Seattle, their three-peat quest is toast.
To the picks …
Last week: 4-2
Season: 33-28-1
Five-star special: 6-4
All picks against the spread
Lines taken from BetMGM (via VegasInsider.com)
(All times Pacific)
Arizona at Colorado
Kickoff: 11 a.m. on Pac-12 Networks
Line: Arizona -10.5 (total: 54.5)
Comment: How will the Wildcats, who made an appearance in the playoff rankings this week, handle their newfound success and the role of double-digit road favorite? Yes, the trip to Boulder has lost some luster with CU’s demise, but there are no signs of Arizona’s momentum slowing. We expect the much-improved defensive to generate steady pressure on Buffaloes quarterback Shedeur Sanders while the Wildcats’ balanced attack moves the ball effectively. Arizona is 8-1 against the spread this season. Make that 9-1.
Pick: Arizona
Utah at Washington
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on Fox
Line: Washington -9.5 (total: 53.5)
Comment: The first of two marquee games in the Pacific Northwest features UW’s first-class offense and Utah’s stout defense, but our outlook envisions the matchup turning on the other conflict: Utah’s hit-and-miss offense against UW’s wobbly defense. Will rookie quarterback Bryson Barnes react to the raucous atmosphere in Husky Stadium? Will the Utes generate a productive running game? The forecast calls for a 60 percent chance of rain.
Pick: Utah
Washington State at Cal
Kickoff: 1 p.m. on ESPN2
Line: Cal -1.5 (total: 58.5)
Comment: The visitors haven’t won since Sept. 23 while the hosts last experienced victory on Sept. 30, so one losing streak will come to an end. WSU’s offense has tanked since the sizzling start but could find its groove against a porous Cal defense. Meanwhile, the Bears have scored 89 points in their past two home games (against Oregon State and USC). Turnovers will be decisive, as both teams are loose with the ball. There isn’t much to separate these desperate teams, but Cal seems less demoralized than WSU.
Pick: Cal
Stanford at Oregon State
Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks
Line: Oregon State -21 (total: 54.5)
Comment: Congratulations to the Beavers on reaching a level of success over the past two seasons that brings trap games into the calculation. Following a road win in Boulder, and with Washington looming next week, will they generate the necessary urgency to handle the role of heavy home favorite? Stanford’s two conference wins came on the road (Colorado and WSU), and it lost close games at home to Washington and Arizona. In other words: The Cardinal is better than it looks.
Pick: Stanford
Arizona State at UCLA
Kickoff: 6 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks
Line: UCLA -17 (total: 44.5)
Comment: Both teams have injured quarterbacks — several of them, in fact — so we’ll disregard that aspect of the matchup and focus on the other 21 positions. ASU is fresh off a brutal loss at Utah but doesn’t have enough healthy bodies to execute a swift recovery and will face a steep challenge up front against UCLA’s physical defensive line. The feels like a grinder, with the Bruins slowly taking control in the second half.
Pick: UCLA
USC at Oregon
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on Fox
Line: Oregon -15.5 (total: 73.5)
Comment: The second of two marquee matchups has all the trappings of a lopsided affair. Oregon should score at will against USC’s turnstile defense, but how will Caleb Williams and Co. perform? That depends on the Trojans’ offensive line, which must carve running lanes and give Williams time to throw. We can’t help but recall USC’s inept showing on the line of scrimmage at Notre Dame a few weeks ago. The Ducks should have similar success, leading to more frustration for the reigning Heisman Trophy winner.
Pick: Oregon
Straight-up winners: Arizona, Washington, Cal, Oregon State, UCLA and Oregon
Five-star special: Stanford. The Cardinal has covered a double-digit spread in four of its past six games. Given OSU’s vulnerable position (with Washington looming next week), the visitors should hang around long enough to make it five of seven.
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