Bay Area college basketball: Local teams have work to do if March Madness awaits in 2024
Cal, Stanford, USF, San Jose State, Santa Clara and Saint Mary's have work to do to make the men's college basketball 64-team NCAA Tournament field.
Nearly two months into the college basketball season and with conference play about to get started, NCAA tournament projections for Bay Area men’s teams are sketchy at best.
Unless things change dramatically or someone emerges to earn an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament, the local teams could be shut out of the 68-team NCAA field for the first time since 2021.
USF and Saint Mary’s are best positioned to perhaps land at-large bids, based on their current NET computer rankings. They begin play a week from now in the West Coast Conference, where No. 13 Gonzaga (9-3) looks like the favorite but is nowhere near as formidable as in recent seasons.
Saint Mary’s has most consistently carried the Bay Area banner in recent years, securing NCAA berths the past two seasons and in four of the past six tournaments. USF ended a 24-year drought with a bid in 2022, but Cal hasn’t been since Jaylen Brown’s lone season in 2016 and Stanford’s wait is a year longer.
San Jose State most recently played in the NCAAs in 1996, when the Bay Area sent an unprecedented four teams. Santa Clara got into the field three times in a span of four years (1993-96) when Steve Nash was an undergrad, but hasn’t been back.
Here’s what the six local teams have done so far:
CAL (4-7)
Net ranking: 221
Next game: Friday at home vs. Arizona, 7:30 p.m.
Good news: The Bears under first-year coach Mark Madsen have made significant strides offensively, improving from 58.3 points per game last year to 76.0. Three transfers are among the Pac-12’s top-10 scorers: guard Jaylon Tyson (19.4 points, 7.0 rebounds), forward Fardaws Aimaq (16.9 points, conference-leading 10.7 rebounds) and guard Jalen Cone (16.3 points, conference-leading 3.7 3’s per game).
Bad news: The Bears rank last in the Pac-12 in scoring defense (75.9), are 0-5 in Quad 4 games and have lost five times by three points or less or in overtime. They built a 26-point lead vs. UC San Diego last week, then had to hang on for a 3-point win.
STANFORD (5-5)
Net ranking: 149
Next game: Friday at home vs. Arizona State, 8 p.m.
Good news: Stanford has taken care of business against overmatched opponents, compiling a 5-0 record in Quad 4 games. A balanced offense, with six players averaging 9.0 points or better, is led by junior big man Maxime Reynaud (14.6 points, 9.1 rebounds) and Providence grad transfer point guard Jared Bynum (9.0 points, 6.7 assists).
Bad news: The Cardinal has yet to beat a good team — 0-5 in Quad 1, 2 or 3 games, with losses to Santa Clara, Arkansas, Michigan, Northern Iowa and San Diego State. Stanford is 11th in the Pac-12 in scoring defense, surrendering 74.6 points per game.
SAINT MARY’S (8-6)
Net ranking: 59
Next game: Friday at home vs. Kent State, 5 p.m.
Good news: The Gaels continue to be elite defensively, allowing just 59.4 points per game to rank seventh nationally and their plus-12.7 rebound margin is fifth-best in Division I. Saint Mary’s owns a road victory over Colorado State, which is 10-1 and No. 16 in the NET rankings, and has no bad losses. Point guard Augustas Marciulionis has emerged over the past seven games, averaging 13.9 points and 4.4 assists.
Bad news: The Gaels, 32-2 at home the past two years, already have lost three times on their home floor. All-WCC sophomore guard Aidan Mahaney (13.4 points) went through a rough five-game stretch, shooting 4 for 33 from the 3-point arc before making 7 of 15 the past two games.
SANTA CLARA (9-5)
Net ranking: 105
Next game: Saturday at home vs. Yale, 4 p.m.
Good news: The Broncos own three wins over Pac-12 opponents, beating Stanford, Oregon and Washington State, all of them either on the road or on a neutral floor. Guards Adama-Alpha Bal, a transfer from Arizona, and Carlos Marshall, average 15.7 and 15.3 points, respectively, and each has four 20-point outings.
Bad news: The only Bay Area team that will play every other one this season, the Broncos have losses at Cal and San Jose State. Santa Clara must tighten its defense, which has allowed 80.5 points in its past eight games against Division I opponents.
USF (10-4)
Net ranking: 48
Next game: Saturday at home vs. Mississippi Valley State, 3 p.m.
Good news: The Dons are 7-0 at home, including an 18-point win over Minnesota, their first victory over a Big Ten opponent in 20 years. USF has been stout defensively, allowing just 60.5 points and holding opponents under 40 percent shooting, including 28 percent from deep. They lead the WCC in turnover margin and assists. Veteran Marcus Williams (15.1 points) and Missouri State transfer forward Jonathan Mogbo (13.6 points, 10.1 rebounds) lead the offense.
Bad news: Not much to pick at here with three of USF’s four defeats by a combined total of 10 points. The Dons shoot the fewest free throws in the WCC, but they lead the conference in accuracy from the stripe.
SAN JOSE STATE (7-6)
Net ranking: 157
Next game: Tuesday at Wyoming, 5:30 p.m.
Good news: Junior guard Myron Amey Jr. leads the Spartans with a 14.5 scoring average and is fifth in the Mountain West with a 2.93 assist-to-turnover ratio. SJSU leads the conference in 3-pointers per game (8.85), including more than two per game from 6-9 junior forward Tibet Gorener (13.1 points), who has doubled his scoring average from a year ago.
Bad news: The Spartans rank 10th among 11 conference schools with a minus-2.0 rebound margin. They have three losses to teams ranked south of 200 in the NET, including to No. 299 Cal Poly. SJSU is above .500, but no one in the Mountain West has more losses and the top of the league is fierce with five teams boasting records of 10-2 or better.
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STANFORD WOMEN VISIT CAL: The Pac-12 women begin conference play this weekend, with No. 9 Stanford (10-1) trekking to Haas Pavilion to face Cal (10-2) on Friday at 2 p.m.
The Cardinal has won nine in a row in the series and features senior forward and two-time All-American Cameron Brink (19.2 points, 11.1 rebounds, 3.3 blocks), recently judged by ESPN as the nation’s No. 2 player (behind Iowa’s Caitlin Clark).
The Bears’ only defeats have come at the hands of Texas A&M and Gonzaga, which have a combined record of 24-3. Cal has improved defensively from a year ago, allowing just 58.3 points per game.
LIKE FATHER, LIKE DAUGHTER: Saint Mary’s senior forward Ali Bamberger topped 1,000 career points during a 19-point effort vs. Cal State East Bay last week, making her part of the first father-daughter duo to each score 1,000 points at the same Division I school.
Eric Bamberger had 1,225 points for the Gaels from 1989 through ’92. Ali, who began her career at Washington, has scored 1,016 points since transferring to Moraga.