Pac-12 MBB preview: Our team-by-team breakdown of the coaching Hot (and Cold) Seats

ASU's Bobby Hurley, OSU's Wayne Tinkle and UW's Mike Hopkins are under significant pressure to win this season.

The final season of Pac-12 basketball as we know it could be the final season of employment for a slew of head coaches.

After all, it takes a truckload of subpar coaching to generate the level of mediocrity produced by the conference in recent years.

This season appears to be no exception following a dismal series of non-conference results. The Pac-12 has a paltry 6-11 record against top-25 opponents and is tracking to send just three or four teams to the NCAA Tournament.

At least four coaches are under significant pressure to win while several others could develop wandering eyes. Don’t be surprised if half the schools experience coaching changes this spring, before the Pac-12 officially breaks apart.

The Hotline’s first Hot Seat breakdown of the 2023-24 season is below, just in time for the start of conference play. We’ll return to the topic in early February.

(Note: Compensation figures are approximate and taken from published reports, including USA Today’s salary database.)

Here we go …

Arizona’s Tommy Lloyd

Contract: $4 million (signed through 2026-27)
Seat heat: Chilled but not quite frozen
Comment: Lloyd’s record in the regular season and conference tournament through two-and-a-half years is a stellar 68-11. His record in the NCAA Tournament is merely 2-2, with a Sweet 16 exit as the No. 1 seed and a first-round flameout as the No. 2 seed. If the Wildcats depart early again this March, expect substantial grumbling from Arizona’s rabid fan base — not enough to fuel a change, perhaps, but enough to put real pressure on Lloyd next season.

Arizona State’s Bobby Hurley

Contract: $2.6 million (signed through 2025-26)
Seat heat: Like the globe, it’s warming
Comment: Hurley quieted many critics last season when he led the Sun Devils to 23 wins and their third NCAA berth in his tenure. But the chirping has returned in Year 9 following an uneven start — and with yet another transfer-heavy roster. (ASU is 6-5 thus far with several lopsided losses.) But the Devils don’t have a permanent athletic director and probably won’t for several months, which adds a layer of complexity to Hurley’s situation. So, too, does the move to the Big 12.

Cal’s Mark Madsen

Contract: Terms not disclosed
Seat heat: Nonexistent
Comment: There is zero pressure on Cal’s first-year coach, partly because the school can’t afford a buyout and partly because the program cannot go anywhere but up after six bleak seasons under Wyking Jones and Mark Fox. It hasn’t taken long for Madsen to upgrade the Bears’ roster to within sight of respectable, yet we cannot help but wonder if there might be some nervous moments for Cal’s administration if a vacancy opens this spring at Madsen’s alma mater on the other side of the Bay.

Colorado’s Tad Boyle

Contract: $2.5 million (signed through 2026-27)
Seat heat: Sub-zero
Comment: After a solid start to his 14th season, Boyle has CU in line for another NCAA Tournament berth and a roster capable of contending for the conference title. The veteran coach is a Colorado native who’s about to turn 61, so we don’t see Boyle leaving Boulder for another gig — especially with the challenge that awaits next season in the Big 12. Nor does Boyle seem like the type to become envious of all the attention directed at CU’s football coach.

Oregon’s Dana Altman

Contract: $4 million (signed through 2027-28)
Seat heat: Signs of a thaw
Comment: Is the future Hall of Fame coach approaching the end of his career at an accelerated rate? His mastery of roster construction — in particular, the ability to rapidly fuse disparate parts — appears to be waning, and the Ducks are barreling toward their third consecutive season without an NCAA berth. To be clear: The 65-year-old Altman, who’s in his 14th season in Eugene, surely would leave on his own terms. But it’s increasingly easy to envision him stepping away sooner than later, and we wonder about his enthusiasm for schlepping from Eugene to West Lafayette and State College.

Oregon State’s Wayne Tinkle

Contract: $2.7 million (signed through 2026-27)
Seat heat: Warm with a chance of hot
Comment: Tinkle is in his 10th season overall in Corvallis and midway through the huge extension he signed following OSU’s run to the Elite Eight in 2021. But given the school’s victory in court against the departing Pac-12 schools, a change on the court seems increasingly likely. (Tinkle’s buyout reportedly drops to $750,000 this season, from $1.5 million.) We don’t doubt that OSU is a difficult job that’s about to become more challenging. We also know that at some point, a school must show fans that winning matters.

Stanford’s Jerod Haase

Contract: Terms not disclosed
Seat heat: Incalculable
Comment: We long since gave up trying to assess Haase’s job security because Stanford’s administration uses a different standard for success — one that apparently does not include NCAA Tournament bids. On the job since the spring of 2016, Haase has yet to lead the Cardinal into the field of 68. That trajectory isn’t likely to change this season with Stanford (5-5) stumbling through the early months, but does it matter? Athletic director Bernard Muir, who hired Haase, seems dead set on standing by his decision.

UCLA’s Mick Cronin

Contract: $4.1 million (signed through 2027-28)
Seat heat: Vladivostok in January
Comment: The fifth-year coach has achieved a rare level of job security within an unstable profession. However, we’ll concede the slim chance that UCLA’s present-day struggles (a four-game losing streak) and upcoming challenges (the Big Ten move) might prompt Cronin to develop a wandering eye. Vacancies could surface this spring, for example, at schools with more NIL resources to compete for recruits and transfers. Some of those openings might even materialize a short drive from Cronin’s hometown of Cincinnati.

USC’s Andy Enfield

Contract: Terms not disclosed
Seat heat: Cryogenically frozen
Comment: After leading the Trojans to three consecutive NCAA Tournament bids, Enfield’s security has only become more entrenched with the troubles experienced in the football office. And that situation will hold even if USC, which has a 6-5 record despite one of the nation’s best backcourts, continues to underachieve. The low-level threat of a coaching change is rooted in the possibility that Enfield, who grew up in Pennsylvania, will jump to a basketball school on the East Coast.

Utah’s Craig Smith

Contract: $2.1 million (signed through 2026-27)
Seat heat: Below freezing … and dropping
Comment: Had Utah sketched out a trajectory for the Smith era, it might look something like this: 11 wins in his first season with an overhauled roster; 17 wins his second season as the culture begins to take hold; and a 9-2 mark entering conference play in his third season. In other words, Smith’s success is evolving exactly as Utah hoped. Sure, a 20-win season and NCAA berth could lead to a contract extension and hefty raise, but that’s a deal the Utes would welcome.

Washington’s Mike Hopkins

Contract: $3.1 million (signed through 2024-25)
Seat heat: Hot with a chance of scalding
Comment: No coach in the Pac-12 entered this season with a hotter seat than Hopkins, whose program has regressed markedly since his initial success. UW’s solid start (8-3 and a win over Gonzaga) has merely kept the heat from increasing. The pause will last until the losses mount in conference play, for the frustration with Hopkins, now in his seventh season, runs deep. The buyout piece is interesting. UW would owe him about $3 million but is on the brink of committing massive resources to retain football coach Kalen DeBoer.

WSU’s Kyle Smith

Contract: $1.5 million (signed through 2026-27)
Seat heat: Colder than Pullman this time of year
Comment: There is no chance of WSU making a move — not after Smith produced winning records in conference play in each of the past two seasons. But as with a few other coaches on this list, we wonder about the impact of external forces (conference realignment, NIL pressures, the transfer portal) on his commitment to the school as Year 5 plays out. Then again, opportunities elsewhere depend on Smith’s success over the next two months — a situation not unlike what we saw recently with the other Smith: Jonathan. In many ways, WSU was better off with a mediocre football season and retaining Jake Dickert than Oregon State was with an eight-win year and losing Smith. WSU basketball might be better off trading a few wins for stability.

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