After redistricting and switched-up candidates, race for District 5 State Senate seat could be close

The race will pit a former U.S. House representative, Jerry McNerney, against one of the most moderate California Assembly members, Carlos Villapudua. 

The California State Senate District 5 election will feature no incumbent, a recently redrawn district, and last-minute candidate switches. It’s just the sort of shake-up that can lead to surprise results.

So could those factors conspire to produce a competitive race, or even flip a seat, in what is widely considered a safely Democratic district?

Likely not, as the two top Democratic candidates, politicians Jerry McNerney and Carlos Villapudua, have both heavily out-fundraised their Republican rival, truck driver Jim Shoemaker. It is, however, possible that a close race will emerge between the two Democrats.

After redistricting, the seat now represents much of Eastern Alameda County, as well as San Joaquin County centered around the population centers of Tracy and Stockton. The district was most recently represented by Susan Talamantes-Eggman, a Democrat from Stockton. Like many communities surrounding the Bay Area, there is growing concern in the district about the rising cost of living, affordable housing and crime.

The race will pit a former U.S. House representative, McNerney, against one of the more moderate California Assembly members, Villapudua.

Villapudua’s wife Edith Villapudua was originally set to run for the District 5 seat, but in a late switch, Carlos Villapudua chose to run in her place.

McNerney, meanwhile, was a last-minute entrant into the District 5 race. After a decade-plus-long stint representing California in the U.S. House, McNerney has been out of politics for the past year. The Pleasanton resident has said he was coaxed into the State Senate race in part because he believes there is more opportunity to get things done.

McNerney’s entrance into the race could also stop the husband-wife Villapudua duo from both earning offices in California state government. Edith Villapudua, after withdrawing from the District 5 race, will now run for the District 13 assembly seat, previously represented by her husband.

Villapudua’s campaign did not seem pleased by McNerney’s decision to enter the race, calling him in an interview with Politico a “backbencher” who achieved “nothing” in Congress.

Republican candidate Shoemaker, who previously ran for the California Ninth Congressional District, will likely run for the seat as a political outsider.

Villapudua and McNerney have raised $332,000 and $222,00, respectively, whereas Shoemaker is just short of $40,000.

Although there is no obvious favorite in the race, McNerney, with his decade-long profile in the U.S. House, has already racked up some notable endorsements, including from Planned Parenthood and the California Labor Federation. The former representative has also earned the support of incumbent Talamantes-Eggman.

It remains to be seen if voters will be swayed by Villapudua’s more recent local experience, or McNerney’s longer record and national profile.

44 % of registered voters in the district are Democrat, compared to 27% Republican, and 21% with no party preference. The top two finishers in the March 5th primary election will move on to the general election in November, regardless of party.