Ryan Poles should stress quality over quantity in draft

Michael Conroy/AP Photos

Bears general manager Ryan Poles already knows he’ll face a big decision with the No. 9 overall pick in the NFL draft on April 25. Does he take a quality player — perhaps Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze or LSU wide receiver Malik Nabors — or trade down to acquire more picks?

“For sure,” Poles said. “We’ll see what the numbers look like and that’ll kind of dictate how far we can move back if we decide to do that.”

Had the Bears not acquired wide receiver Keenan Allen from the Chargers last month, the decision likely would have been a no-brainer if Odunze or Nabors is available. (And a stroke of good fortune at that — prior to Michigan quarterback J.J McCarthy jumping into the top five in most mock drafts, Odunze, Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. and Nabors all were projected to go before the No. 9 pick.)

But if the Odunze/Nabors scenario ensues, the addition of Allen presumably gives Poles some wiggle room for options. Not just another player at No. 9, but the opportunity to trade down and acquire more picks.

And that is sure to be tempting for Poles, who has just four picks in this year’s draft — No. 1 and No. 9 overall in the first round, No. 75 in the third round and No. 122 in the fourth round (acquired from the Eagles last year when they traded the No. 9 overall pick for No. 10).

Of their original seven picks (one in each round), the Bears traded their second-round pick (No. 40) to the Commanders for defensive end Montez Sweat; their fourth-round pick (No. 110) to the Chargers for Allen; their fifth-round pick (No. 144) to the Bills for center/guard Ryan Bates; their sixth-round pick (No. 184) to the Dolphins for center/guard Dan Feeney; and their seventh-round pick (No. 231) to the Patriots for wide receiver N’Keal Harry.

The Bears have never had fewer than five draft picks since the draft began in 1936. Only one team in the last 14 years has drafted fewer than four players — the Seahawks had three picks in 2021. In fact, only six teams in the 31-year history of the seven-round draft have had fewer than four picks. (In 1999, the Saints had one draft pick — Texas running back Ricky Williams — after trading all six of their draft picks (and two picks in 2000) for the No. 5 overall pick.)

Like just about every GM ever, Poles vowed to “build through the draft” when he was hired in 2022. And he’s lived up to that philosophy in his first two drafts with the Bears. In 2022 he started with six picks (but without a first-round pick because of predecessor Ryan Pace’s 2021 trade up to draft Justin Fields) and ended up with 11.

The additional picks were in the lotto portion of the draft — two picks in the sixth round (Nos. 203 and 207) and three in the seventh round (Nos. 226, 254 and 255). That’s how much any draft pick means to a GM building a roster from the bottom. (The Bears’ chose running back Trestan Ebner, center Doug Kramer, offensive tackle Ja’Tyre Carter, safety Elijah Hicks and punter Trenton Gill with those extra picks).

In 2023, Poles had 10 draft picks, with extra picks in the second round (defensive tackle Gervon Dexter), fourth round (running back Roschon Johnson), fifth round (linebacker Noah Sewell) and seventh round (safety Kendall Williamson).

Poles might feel the need to stockpile more picks again this season, but he doesn’t have to. Even with just four picks, the Bears’ overall draft capital for 2024 ranks second in the NFL, per the Jimmy Johnson draft pick value chart — thanks to having No. 1 and 9 overall.

But more significantly, the Bears should now be in position to prioritize quality over quantity at every point in the draft. If Poles and the Bears’ personnel staff have done their job with 21 draft picks in 2022 and 2023, the Bears shouldn’t need to accumulate draft picks.

And so far, Poles’ two drafts show promise, with five starters in cornerback Kyler Gordon, safety Jaquan Brisker and left tackle Braxton Jones (in 2022) and right tackle Darnell Wright and cornerback Tyrique Stevenson (in 2023), plus a likely 2024 starter in defensive tackle Gervon Dexter (2023).

The Bears still have a long way to go, but they have a lot of opportunities for upgrades from within, which takes the pressure off any draft. The opportunity to parlay the No. 9 overall pick into additional picks might be too good for Poles to pass up. But by acquiring quarterback Caleb Williams — the presumptive No. 1 overall pick — Montez Sweat with the second-round pick and Keenan Allen with the fourth-round pick, Ryan Poles will be feeling pretty good about his third draft even if he stands pat.