Three reasons Biden won’t close the border

The influx of millions of immigrants looking for work over the past three years has helped check the cost of America’s labor shortage.

For over three years, critics of President Joe Biden have watched dumbfounded as he has resolutely refused to close the southern border. Unfettered illegal immigration has led to deaths from fentanyl poisoning, outbreaks of once-rare diseases like measles and tuberculosis, surging crime in sanctuary cities, heightened national security concerns — and abysmal approval ratings for the president.

Though he has denied it, Biden has had the ability at any time to reimpose the guardrails erected by former President Donald Trump, who instituted the “remain in Mexico” provision, demanded Mexico help slow the north-bound caravans, ended the Obama-era “catch-and-release” practice, built sections of border fencing and introduced other measures that reduced illegal crossings. In his first weeks in office, Biden undid more than a dozen Trump-era rules, and has now allowed now more than 5 million people to flood into the country.

Abdication of responsibility on the border has become a top political headache for Biden, and yet — other than blaming Republicans for not passing an immigration law that he dishonestly claims would have solved the problem — the president has been unmovable.

There are three possible reasons for his stubborn embrace of a policy that even his Democratic colleagues opposed not so long ago.

First, Biden still depends on the far-left flank of his party, without which he would not have become president, and progressives Democrats favor an open border. Don’t forget the pact made in 2020 by the so-called “Unity Task Force,” which included supporters of both the Biden and Bernie Sanders camps, dictating a shift to the left for Joe Biden, who had campaigned as a moderate. The joint platform celebrated the Green New Deal, a higher minimum wage and — yes — leniency on illegal immigration. Biden’s hold on Bernie fans has always been tentative, and at risk. It would disappear overnight were he to crack down on illegal immigration.

Second, welcoming millions of undocumented people into the nation, and attracting them to sanctuary cities in states like New York and Illinois, helped staunch a threatening loss of political power for Democrats. Because disastrous liberal policies on crime and taxes are driving hundreds of thousands of citizens to relocate to friendlier and more affordable “red” states, Democrats risk losing seats in Congress and significant federal funding. (In the 1940s, New York State had 45 members of the House; now it has only 26.) But, because the U.S. counts in its periodic censuses people who are non-citizens and even those in the country illegally, blue states’ population losses have not penalized Biden’s party as much as they might have.

New York and California have indeed lost seats in the House of Representatives, but the decline would have been far worse but for the influx into both states of hundreds of thousands of illegal residents.

Finally, another possible rationale for not closing the border is the impact on inflation, Biden’s biggest political vulnerability. The 37 percent increase in food prices since 2019, the over 20 percent hike in electricity costs, soaring rents and car prices — the struggle of millions of Americans to make ends meet — has put Biden’s reelection bid in jeopardy.

But it could have been worse, because the influx of millions of immigrants looking for work over the past three years has helped check the cost of America’s labor shortage. As the nation recovered from the pandemic, jobs came back faster than the number of workers, many of whom were encouraged to stay on the sidelines by outsized Covid relief spending and benefits. The trillions of dollars spent to keep the economy afloat sent checks to nearly every adult, enhanced and extended unemployment benefits, paused payments on student loans and rents and more. One study showed that “In 19 states, benefits are equivalent to $100,000 a year in salary for a family of four with two unemployed parents.”

Meanwhile, Biden embarked on a crusade to boost organized labor. Vowing to be the most pro-union president ever, Biden stuffed his National Labor Relations Board with former union leaders and activists, and encouraged organizing at every level. Workers that tried and failed to form unions were encouraged to try again and backed by favorable rulings. The president made a great show of showing up at a UAW picket line when car workers went on strike and rallied the union to hold out for significant raises. Thus emboldened, unions across the country went on strike and demanded hefty pay increases.

All this would have compounded the nation’s inflation headache, except for the arrival of millions of new workers, who have helped to keep wages down. In recent months, as more undocumented people have entered the workforce, hiring has been concentrated in part-time jobs that do not require that employers give benefits and that likely demand only minimum documentation.

At the same time, increased employment between the fourth quarters of 2019 and 2023 has gone entirely to foreign-born workers, while native-born Americans have lost jobs; in that period, 2.9 million immigrants (legal and illegal) have found employment while 183,000 America-born workers have lost jobs. Though the split between legal and illegal immigrants is not known, it stands to reason that a great many undocumented people who have entered the U.S. looking for work have found jobs.

The impact of millions of new workers arriving in the U.S. is that wages have, for the most part, lagged inflation and are stalling, again. Average real hourly earnings were flat in March after falling 0.3 percent in February. As the Wall Street Journal recently reported, “Since Mr. Biden took office in January 2021, average hourly earnings after inflation are down 2.54%.”

Inflation may be damaging Joe Biden’s approval ratings, but allowing uncontrolled illegal immigration to dampen wage growth is a terrible way to attack the problem. Terrible for the country, and for low-income Americans.

Liz Peek is a former partner of major bracket Wall Street firm Wertheim & Company.