AFC Divisional Round Player Props: Texans vs. Ravens

Here are three picks for Saturday’s playoff game, including another bold prediction for rookie sensation C.J. Stroud.

The Houston Texans upset the Cleveland Browns at home last Saturday, and they’ll be looking to upset the no. 1 seed Baltimore Ravens on the road this Saturday. So far, Houston has been playing with house money, exceeding all expectations this season under the leadership of first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback, C.J. Stroud.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are fresh off a bye, with many players having also taken off Week 18 for a bonus week of rest.

Mark Andrews should return for Baltimore while Noah Brown has been put on IR for the Texans. The home team is favored by 9 at SI Sportsbook and the game total is at 45.5.

Here are the player props we are targeting early for this week’s divisional game in Baltimore.

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C.J. Stroud over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+145)

Stroud cashed this prop for us last week to the tune of +120, and we are going to ride it again. Including postseason, the likely offensive rookie of the year has passed for two or more touchdowns in nine of 15 games played. He was held to no touchdowns when these two teams met up in Week 1, but quite a lot of things have changed since then.

There’s a reason this bet has such a nice payout: The Ravens only allowed 18 passing touchdowns during the regular season (interestingly enough, the Texans were the best in that category, allowing only 17, yet Lamar’s passing prop pays only +100).

However, here are the quarterbacks against whom the Ravens allowed 2-plus touchdowns: Matthew Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa, Joshua Dobbs,and an injured Joe Burrow. I’d put Stroud up there with any of those QBs the way he is playing right now. If the Texans are expected to be trailing, they will have to throw to keep up. The implied total for the Texans is 18, but at this nice payout I’m willing to bet if the Texans score at least 18, Stroud has thrown for a pair.

Lamar Jackson under 53.5 rushing yards (-115)

I’m betting Ryans finds it a personal challenge to put together a game plan that limits Jackson’s unique skill set. The Texans have allowed only 283 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season, for an average of just 16.6 per game. That number includes just 38 rushing yards allowed to Jackson in Week 1. In fact, the Texans did not allow more than 51 rushing yards to any quarterback this season. Those 51 yards were allowed to Kyler Murray in Week 11. Russell Wilson logged 41 in Week 13. Lamar has gone under this mark in nine of 16 games played and he’s averaging 51 yards per game this year.

Devin Singletary over 54.5 rushing yards (-115)

The Ravens defense has been good this season, but they have not been as strong vs. the run as in years past. The Ravens allowed more than 90 yards per game to runners during the regular season, and they allowed 100 yards per game between Weeks 14-17. SIngletary is the clear leader in the Houston backfield, averaging more than 17 attempts per game in the final five games of the regular season and exceeding this prop in four of them. We saw Singletary rush the ball 13 times for 66 yards vs. a tougher Browns run defense last weekend, and though the game script is expected to be different this weekend, Singletary should still be a big part of the game plan. 

Related: AFC Divisional Round Betting Preview: Texans vs. Ravens

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